Xi's Nuclear Vision: China's Bid for Geopolitical Dominance Threatens World Peace
China's nuclear arsenal expansion is driven by a strategic shift, as the country seeks greater geopolitical leverage against perceived threats from the United States.
The Facts:
China's nuclear arsenal is rapidly expanding under the leadership of President Xi Jinping. According to Pentagon estimates, Beijing is on track to amass 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, up from around 200 in 2019. Satellite images have revealed that China is building two large ICBM silo fields with an estimated 120 and 110 silos respectively, indicating a significant expansion of its nuclear capabilities. This nuclear buildup, combined with China's broader investments in modernizing its armed forces, has caused deep concern in Washington.
As Mark Cozad, a Senior International Defense Researcher at the RAND Corporation, points out, "What is most concerning about the growth of China's nuclear arsenal is that Beijing has not been clear about why the change and what this means for China's long-standing policies and views of nuclear weapons." This lack of clarity from China regarding the reasons behind the rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal is a significant cause for concern.
Moreover, Cozad notes that "Beijing has long been reluctant to build up its nuclear arsenal due to concerns over the cost that an arms race would impose on China as it is trying to modernize its economy." This suggests that China's previous restraint in building up its nuclear arsenal was driven by economic considerations and a desire to avoid the burden of an arms race.
The quantitative and qualitative improvements to China's nuclear arsenal appear to go well beyond what is needed to prevent coercion and ensure a limited second strike. China's nuclear buildup could be directly related to its overall Taiwan strategy, as a more robust nuclear capability would force the U.S. to think twice before intervening on Taiwan's behalf in the event of war.
In 2023, the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States insisted that China's nuclear expansion should prompt U.S. policymakers to "re-evaluate the size and composition of the U.S. nuclear force." Admiral John Aquilino, the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, warned, "we haven't faced a threat like this since World War II."
A close assessment of the evolving thinking within China's political leadership and security policy circles reveals that Chinese officials are not simply expanding their nuclear arsenal for military-technical purposes. Rather, Chinese leaders seem to have embraced the belief that nuclear weaponry grants them greater geopolitical leverage to counter perceived threats. Beijing's objections to what it sees as an unfair U.S. nuclear strategy and illegitimate U.S. security interests further solidify its willingness to use unilateral measures to address its security concerns.
In Beijing's view, growing tensions with Washington are the result of the shifting balance of power between China and the United States—a consequence of China's rapid economic development rather than any change in behavior on its part. Washington feels threatened by China's rise and has become increasingly hostile to Beijing, the thinking goes, and has developed containment strategies aimed at preserving U.S. geopolitical dominance. Given these circumstances, Beijing must persuade Washington to accept China's ascendance as a major player and convince U.S. policymakers that they will be unable to contain, disrupt, or destabilize China. According to China's ruling elites, Beijing can do so only by bolstering its power, including through the expansion of its nuclear arsenal.
Xi Jinping has elevated the missile force to the status of a full military service, issued specific instructions to expedite nuclear modernization, and boosted both the sophistication and the size of China's nuclear arsenal. Xi's commitment to nuclear weapons reflects a profound difference in how he perceives such arms compared to his American counterparts. Rather than aiming to achieve clearly defined military objectives, such as deterring an enemy from undertaking specific military activities, Beijing sees nuclear weapons as symbols of military strength and believes that they wield a particular influence on an adversary's perception of the power balance. This notion underpins what Chinese officials refer to as the "strategic counterbalance" mission of their nuclear forces—a bid to force the United States to take a more accommodating stance toward China.
The notion that nuclear weapons possess extensive—almost magical—coercive power in and beyond the military realm is probably more a product of intuition than of rigorously examined logic and evidence. Nonetheless, the highly centralized domestic power structure that Xi has established has prevented any serious evaluation of his guiding assumptions, leading instead to the rapid and unquestioning execution of his vision of China as a more robust nuclear power.
The View:
China's nuclear expansion is not solely driven by military-technical considerations but rather by a profound shift in the country's strategic thinking. Under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, China has embraced the belief that a larger nuclear arsenal will grant it greater geopolitical leverage to counter perceived threats from the United States.
The widening gap in worldviews and political perceptions between China and the West is a major obstacle to achieving mutual understanding and trust, making it difficult to reach cooperative solutions. This shift in thinking is a troubling development, as it suggests that China's nuclear policy is being guided more by political calculations than by a clear and rational military strategy. The notion that nuclear weapons possess an almost "magical" coercive power that can force the United States to accept China's ascendance as a major power is both flawed and dangerous.
Additionally, the lessons Beijing may have learned from the war in Ukraine, where Russia's nuclear arsenal has deterred direct U.S. or NATO intervention, could provide extra motivation for China to boost its own nuclear capabilities. Historical evidence does not support the idea that nuclear weapons can be used as a political tool to gain concessions from adversaries. Moreover, the highly centralized nature of China's political system has prevented any serious evaluation of the assumptions underpinning Xi's nuclear strategy. This lack of critical analysis has allowed the rapid and unquestioning execution of Xi's vision, potentially leading to an intensifying nuclear rivalry between China and the United States.
TLDR:
China's nuclear arsenal is rapidly expanding, with estimates of 1,000 warheads by 2030, up from around 200 in 2019.
Satellite images reveal China is building large ICBM silo fields, indicating a significant expansion of its nuclear capabilities.
This nuclear buildup, combined with China's broader investments in modernizing its armed forces, has caused deep concern in Washington.
The lack of clarity from China regarding the reasons behind the rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal is a significant cause for concern.
China's previous restraint in building up its nuclear arsenal was driven by economic considerations and a desire to avoid the burden of an arms race.
China's nuclear buildup could be directly related to its overall Taiwan strategy, as a more robust nuclear capability would force the U.S. to think twice before intervening.
Chinese leaders seem to have embraced the belief that nuclear weaponry grants them greater geopolitical leverage to counter perceived threats from the United States.
Beijing's objections to what it sees as an unfair U.S. nuclear strategy and illegitimate U.S. security interests further solidify its willingness to use unilateral measures to address its security concerns.
President Xi Jinping has elevated the missile force to the status of a full military service, issued specific instructions to expedite nuclear modernization, and boosted both the sophistication and the size of China's nuclear arsenal.
The notion that nuclear weapons possess extensive coercive power is a flawed and dangerous perception, yet the highly centralized nature of China's political system has prevented any serious evaluation of the assumptions underpinning its nuclear strategy.
Know More:
Why You Should Be Worried About China’s Nukes
How Nuclear Missile, Submarine and Stealth Bomber Capabilities Match Up
Insights From:
The Real Motives for China’s Nuclear Expansion - Foreign Affairs
Understanding China's Growing Nuclear Arsenal - The Cipher Brief