The Shifting Global Order: Middle Powers Reshape the Geopolitical Landscape
The Shifting Global Order: Middle Powers Reshape the Geopolitical Landscape
The global order is undergoing a seismic shift, as a diverse group of "middle powers" seek to assert their interests and challenge the traditional dominance of the United States.
The Story:
The global political landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, with a diverse group of nations, often referred to as "emerging powers" or "middle powers," asserting their diplomatic influence in ways that are complicating American statecraft. These nations, which include the likes of Indonesia, Argentina, Brazil, India, Mexico, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, and Turkey, are rising in prominence and refusing to simply align with the United States' preferences on numerous international issues. These emerging powers collectively make up around a third of the world's population and a fifth of its economic production, and they are expected to continue climbing the ranks of the world's largest economies and populations in the coming decades. Their diplomacy is becoming increasingly ambitious, and they are taking bold positions that challenge the United States and its allies.
These emerging powers are critical of many aspects of the U.S.-led international order, which they see as dominated by former colonial powers and unfairly structured to serve the interests of the world's wealthiest nations. They are actively seeking a more fluid and multipolar world order in which they believe they will have more leverage and freedom of maneuver.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, most of these emerging powers declined to join the U.S.-led coalition supporting Ukraine, refusing to impose sanctions on Russia or provide weapons to Kyiv. Instead, some of them, such as India and Turkey, even expanded their economic ties with Russia. Meanwhile, several of these nations pursued active diplomacy to try to end the war, challenging the U.S. policy of supporting Ukraine "as long as it takes." As one senior Indian official pointed out, "I have a population at $2,000 [per capita annual income]. I also need energy, and I am not in a position to pay high prices for oil." Additionally, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva pitched a plan to assemble a peace club to end the war and urged Washington to "stop encouraging war and start talking about peace." He noted that "For India and others it's not a question of picking sides. It's a question of picking everyone."
The stand-off between Washington and Beijing, and the West's effective abandonment of its three-decade dream that the gospel of free markets would lead to a more liberal version of the Chinese Communist party, are presenting an opportunity for much of the world to be wooed and play one off against the other. Most of these emerging powers have warm ties with China and are reluctant to do anything that would endanger their economic relations with China. The era of "fence-sitters" and "swing states" has arrived, with the middle powers seeking to increase their relevance by taking advantage of the U.S.-China competition. Many of these emerging powers maintain closer economic ties with the U.S. than with China, especially when it comes to investment and defense cooperation.
The View:
The emergence of these diverse and influential nations presents a significant challenge for the United States, as it can no longer rely on a simple dichotomy of "with us or against us" when it comes to global affairs. These middle powers are sophisticated geopolitical actors who are adept at playing various powers off against each other, refusing to be drawn into a new Cold War between the U.S. and China. Washington must recognize that the era of American global supremacy is fading, and it must adapt its approach accordingly.
The United States should avoid the urge to frame this world historical moment as a neo-Cold War ideological struggle between liberal democracy and authoritarianism. Such framings are likely to fall flat with these emerging powers, who see them as thinly veiled attempts to rally them against the U.S.'s strategic rivals. Instead, the U.S. should focus on developing a positive value proposition that offers tangible benefits to these nations in terms of their economic and political development, sovereignty, and aspirations for a greater voice in international affairs. This may require a more pragmatic and nuanced approach, one that acknowledges the legitimate grievances these nations have with the U.S.-led global order and seeks to address them through meaningful cooperation and concessions.
Ultimately, the best way for the U.S. to engage with these emerging powers is to help them strengthen their sovereignty, allowing them to resist the influence of U.S. adversaries while also gaining a real stake in sustaining a peaceful world order. This will be a long-term endeavor, but one that is essential for America's continued global leadership and prosperity. As political scientist Ivan Krastev notes "Don't focus on US-China competition, as they are not going to be able to discipline fragmentation as Russia and America did in the Cold War. The middle powers may not be big enough or strong enough to shape the international order, but their ambition is to increase their relevance. Their overactivity is going to make them unpredictable." The era of the Western "set menu" is over, and the new global order is being written by a diverse array of actors, each pursuing their own interests and seeking to maximize their influence. The United States must adapt to this reality if it hopes to maintain its relevance and advance its interests in the decades to come.
TLDR:
Emerging powers like Indonesia, Brazil, India, and others are refusing to align with the U.S. or China, instead pursuing a more fluid, multipolar world order that offers them greater leverage and freedom of maneuver.
These middle powers are actively pursuing diplomacy to end the Russia-Ukraine war, maintaining close economic ties with China, and challenging the U.S.-led liberal international order, which they see as unfairly structured to serve the interests of the West.
The U.S. must move beyond ideological framings and grand strategies, and instead focus on developing positive value propositions that offer tangible benefits to the economic and political development of these emerging powers.
The "middle powers" are not simply fence-sitters or swing states, but rather ambitiously reshaping the global landscape, making them increasingly unpredictable and difficult for the U.S. and China to discipline.
The rise of these middle powers coincides with a shift towards a more à la carte world order, where countries can pick and choose their alignments, posing a challenge to the U.S. and its allies.
The U.S. and its allies must urgently reassess their foreign policy approaches to engage more effectively with this new geopolitical reality, lest they risk being left behind.
Insights From:
How Washington Should Manage Rising Middle Powers – Foreign Policy
The à la carte world: our new geopolitical order - Financial Times