The High Cost of Deportation: Trump's Immigration Plan Threatens Economic Disaster
Trump's proposed mass deportation of unauthorized immigrants would have significant consequences due to their integral role in the U.S. workforce.
The Facts:
Immigration reform has long been a contentious and unresolved issue in the United States, with the last significant overhaul happening in 1986 during Ronald Reagan's presidency. Despite the continued failure to address this pressing concern, the recent surge in illegal border crossings has catapulted the topic to the forefront of the 2024 presidential election.
There are around 11 million unauthorized or undocumented immigrants in the U.S., comprising 3.3% of the U.S. population. Unauthorized immigrants make up 4.5% of the U.S. workforce, working in industries like construction (21%), hospitality (16%), professional/technical services (14%), manufacturing (10%), and retail (8%). Notably, 14.5% of unauthorized immigrants have some college or associate degrees, and 18.5% have college or graduate degrees. While some Americans fear immigrants taking jobs, immigrants often take on essential lower-wage and physically demanding jobs that keep businesses afloat, and their work complements that of native-born workers. As Michael Clemens, an economist at George Mason University, proclaimed "The work of the U.S. citizen serving a table in a restaurant is complemented by the work of a possibly unauthorized worker in the back of the restaurant."
Moreover, the U.S. fertility rate has trended below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman since the 1970s, reaching a record low of 1.62 in 2023. Meaning immigration is now necessary to maintain a robust workforce and economic growth. This is evidenced by foreign-born people representing 80% of the adult-population increase in the U.S. since July 2022 and accounting for 71% of the 2.5 million new jobs.
However, these economic benefits have done little to change the minds of many Americans, who continue to view immigration, particularly illegal immigration, as a source of concern. Fears surrounding the strain on public services, crime, and cultural assimilation have led to a generally negative perception of immigration. Recent polls in swing states have shown that the issue ranks among voters' top two concerns.
In response to this growing unease, former President Donald Trump has unveiled a bold and controversial plan to address illegal immigration. If elected, he promises to launch a mass deportation operation, utilizing local police, the National Guard, and even the military if necessary. Trump has also suggested building migrant detention camps, though he claims the process would be so rapid that encampments would generally not be necessary. However, the taxpayer costs to deport 11 million unauthorized immigrants would come to $265 billion according to estimates by the DHS, which is equivalent to 11% of all projected income tax revenues in 2024 and 30% of the Pentagon's 2024 budget.
In addition, large-scale deportation could lead to a reduction in national wages and salaries. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the median income for all foreign-born full-time workers was $46,200 in 2023. Approximately 16.6% of unauthorized immigrants were employed part-time, while a significant majority (83.7%) held full-time positions. Even considering research by Harvard economist George Borjas, who found that legal immigrants earned only 4% more than their unauthorized counterparts, the impact could be substantial. Calculations by Robert J. Shapiro, Senior Fellow at the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University, suggest a potential loss of $317.2 billion, equivalent to 2.7% of labor income in 2023. This loss would exceed that of recessions in 1980, 1991, and 2002, and nearly half of the decline witnessed during the 2009 Great Recession
The View:
Trump's immigration agenda is clearly a central focus of his 2024 campaign, and his proposals, if implemented, would have devastating consequences for both the economy and the lives of millions of individuals. His plan to round up and deport millions of unauthorized immigrants, including their American-born children, is not only morally reprehensible but also economically disastrous.
The data paints a clear picture of the profound impact such a mass deportation program would have. Unauthorized immigrants currently make up 3.3% of the U.S. population, or 11 million people, and they are integrated into the fabric of American society, with the vast majority having lived in the country for over a decade. Removing such a significant portion of the labor force would have catastrophic economic consequences, potentially triggering a recession on the scale of the 2008 financial crisis.
According to Okun's Law, a 4.5% drop in employment is associated with a more than 9-percentage-point decline in GDP growth. This would also lead to the loss of an additional 968,000 American jobs, on top of the 7.1 million held by immigrants facing deportation. The economic upheaval would also likely reignite inflation, as businesses struggle to replace their workforce and are forced to raise prices to maintain profitability. Trump's plan would also impose an enormous financial burden on taxpayers, with the estimated cost of apprehending, detaining, transporting, and deporting 11 million unauthorized immigrants expected to run into the hundreds of billions.
Additionally, the loss of these workers would create significant labor shortages in key industries, hampering economic productivity and competitiveness. Businesses may struggle to fill critical positions, leading to disruptions in essential services and supply chains. This could have ripple effects throughout the economy, further exacerbating the economic crisis.
Moreover, the mass deportation of unauthorized immigrants would have severe humanitarian consequences, tearing apart families and disrupting the lives of millions of individuals who have made the United States their home. Many of these immigrants are deeply rooted in their communities, with American-born children and long-standing ties to the country. Forcibly removing them would cause immense trauma and suffering, undermining the very values of compassion and human dignity that are central to the American identity.
Ultimately, Trump's immigration agenda is a misguided and deeply damaging proposal that would inflict immense suffering on millions of families, while also undermining the very foundations of the American economy. It is a reckless and irresponsible approach that should be firmly rejected by any rational, compassionate policymaker.
TLDR:
Immigration reform has been a long-standing and unresolved issue in the United States, with the last significant overhaul occurring in 1986.
There are an estimated 11 million unauthorized or undocumented immigrants in the U.S., making up 3.3% of the population and 4.5% of the workforce.
Unauthorized immigrants often take on essential lower-wage and physically demanding jobs, complementing the work of native-born workers.
The U.S. fertility rate has dropped below the replacement rate, making immigration necessary to maintain a robust workforce and economic growth.
Despite the economic benefits, many Americans view immigration, particularly illegal immigration, as a source of concern due to fears surrounding public services, crime, and cultural assimilation.
Former President Donald Trump has proposed a controversial plan to address illegal immigration, including a mass deportation operation that would have devastating economic and humanitarian consequences.
Deporting 11 million unauthorized immigrants could lead to a loss of $317.2 billion in labor income, equivalent to 2.7% of labor income in 2023, and the loss of an additional 968,000 American jobs.
Insights From:
Mass Deportation Would Be a Disaster - Wall Street Journal
Trump’s Plans for Mass Deportation Would Be an Economic Disaster -Washington Monthly