The Dragon's Embrace: Cambodia's Shift Towards China and Away from the U.S.

Driven by economic, political, and security interests, Cambodia's pivot towards China is a worrying development that undermines U.S. influence in Southeast Asia.

Jul 23, 2024

The Facts:

The relationship between Cambodia, the United States, and China has undergone a significant transformation over the past few decades. In the late 1980s, former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen described China as "evil," but by 2016, he had described their ties as "ironclad." Concurrently, Cambodia's relations with the United States have deteriorated. This shift in Cambodia's foreign policy can be attributed to three primary factors: economic, political, and security concerns. The desire to maintain power is the driving force behind Cambodia's closer ties with China and its increasingly strained relationship with the United States.

China is building a naval base on the outskirts of Ream National Park in southern Cambodia, on the site of a former U.S.-built military facility. This move serves a greater strategic purpose of establishing a trade route that bypasses Vietnam, which is becoming more pro-Western. China's deepening ties with Cambodia, including the construction of the Funan Techo canal, also serve this strategic purpose of creating a trade route that avoids Vietnam.

China's comprehensive support, which includes economic funding, political backing, and military assistance, aligns with what the Cambodian government seeks. China's military aid bolsters Cambodia's security against both domestic and international threats, while the United States' security assistance has focused more on non-traditional areas, such as counter-terrorism and people smuggling, which are less essential for the Cambodian regime's security. In 2017, military ties between Cambodia and the United States ended due to the contentious relationship between the two countries.

Chinese economic funding advances public and private goods in Cambodia, promoting infrastructure development and providing kickbacks to the country's elites to ensure their continued support for the government. Despite scrutiny from investors from Japan, South Korea, and the United States, who are concerned about corruption in Cambodia, Chinese actors are less concerned about these issues. In contrast, US foreign direct investment (FDI) in Cambodia is limited, as US companies are hesitant to invest in countries that do not have good ties with the United States.

The United States' approach of "naming and shaming" Cambodia's poor human rights practices is viewed as a threat by the Cambodian government, as it could potentially impact the country's domestic stability. China, on the other hand, is perceived as a more reliable partner, as it avoids such actions.

The transition of power from former Prime Minister Hun Sen to his son, Hun Manet, has not significantly altered Cambodia's foreign policy towards China. Hun Manet has continued to strengthen ties with China, receiving support for his "Pentagonal Strategy" development plan and signing numerous agreements for Chinese development projects in Cambodia. At the same time, Hun Manet has also made efforts to repair relations with the United States, engaging with US business leaders and signaling a desire to improve ties. The resumption of US$18 million in US aid to Cambodia under Hun Manet's leadership is seen as a positive step towards mending the relationship.

The View:

It is clear that Cambodia's foreign policy is primarily driven by its desire to maintain power and secure its own interests, regardless of the moral or ethical implications. The country's willingness to align itself so closely with China, at the expense of its relationship with the United States, is a concerning development that must be addressed. The Cambodian government's reliance on Chinese economic and military support is particularly troubling, as it not only undermines democratic values but also threatens regional stability. The fact that China is willing to provide this support without regard for human rights or good governance is a testament to its disregard for the wellbeing of the Cambodian people.

The United States' approach of "naming and shaming" Cambodia's human rights abuses is a commendable effort, but it is clear that more forceful action is needed to counter China's growing influence in the region. The United States must be willing to take a more assertive stance, leveraging its economic and diplomatic power to pressure the Cambodian government to uphold democratic principles and respect the rights of its citizens. However, the current "all carrot, no stick" approach of the U.S. risks further democratic decline in Cambodia and the growth of Chinese influence in the region.

This is a critical moment for the U.S. and Southeast Asia, and a failure to act decisively risks normalizing the continued assault on the freedoms and liberties of citizens in the region. It is time for the international community to take a stronger stance against the Cambodian government's authoritarian tendencies and its willingness to sacrifice democratic values in pursuit of its own interests. Failure

TLDR:

Cambodia's foreign policy has undergone a significant shift, moving closer to China and straining its relationship with the United States.
This shift is driven by economic, political, and security concerns, with the primary goal of maintaining the Cambodian government's power.
China's comprehensive support, including economic funding, political backing, and military assistance, aligns with the Cambodian government's interests.
The U.S. approach of "naming and shaming" Cambodia's human rights abuses is seen as a threat by the Cambodian government, leading it to favor China as a more reliable partner.
The U.S. must take a more assertive stance to counter China's growing influence in the region and pressure the Cambodian government to uphold democratic principles.
Failure to address this issue risks further democratic decline in Cambodia and the normalization of authoritarian tendencies in Southeast Asia.