The Countdown to a Potential Israel-Hezbollah Conflict
The Countdown to a Potential Israel-Hezbollah Conflict
The volatile situation in the northern region of Israel is hurtling towards an inevitable and catastrophic war between the Jewish state and the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group, Hezbollah.
The Facts:
The situation in the northern region of Israel has become increasingly volatile, with the threat of a major confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group, looming on the horizon. The region has been under constant attack, with Hezbollah reportedly firing more than 5,000 missiles and drones since October 7th, without any significant retaliation from Israel.
Israel's plans for an all-out war signal its determination to alter the balance of power in the north, stem Hezbollah's rocket fire, and possibly set up a buffer zone in Lebanese territory. As Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the voice of the Israeli military, suggested, "After Oct. 7, we're not the same country we used to be. We won't merely 'contain' anymore."
The Israeli military has killed approximately 360 Hezbollah fighters, but the group has a vast army of tens of thousands, as well as an estimated 150,000 missiles at its disposal. Furthermore, Israel has evacuated around 70,000 civilians from the northern region, who now watch helplessly as their homes are bombarded by Hezbollah's relentless attacks. Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is seen as not wanting a larger war, but with a weak U.S. president, they may get it anyway. Iran and Hezbollah need to feel more U.S. pressure, as Iran currently feels confident due to its nuclear threshold status and regional influence.
The Biden administration will have a crucial role to play in averting war or limiting its worst outcomes, especially in light of Iran's threat to join Hezbollah's defense. Intermediaries in Beirut are still exploring whether a concession short of a full cessation of Hezbollah's rocket fire may be enough to unlock a political settlement.
Pressure is mounting on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to defeat Hezbollah, but the stakes are high with the potential for major damage in Tel Aviv. Netanyahu has earned a reputation in Israel for being cautious with the use of military force, and his administration is currently focused on building up Israel's arms industry and finding a cost-effective solution to counter Hezbollah's suicide drones.
As Tamir Hayman, the leader of Israel's Institute for National Security Studies and a former head of Israeli military intelligence, notes, "We don't have the resources, the international legitimacy or the full approval of the U.S. to go to war in Lebanon right now." This sentiment reflects the constraints Israel faces in starting a war with Hezbollah.
The Israeli military establishment acknowledges that a war with Hezbollah would likely end with an agreement short of total victory, and some have even suggested "making a deal now and skipping the war." The military establishment is also open to a deal with Hezbollah that could involve ending the Gaza war and returning the territory to Hamas. However, restarting a war against Hamas after a ceasefire could be problematic, as Hamas would likely give many reasons to resume fighting.
However, Amir Avivi, a retired brigadier general who leads the Israel Defense and Security Forum, argues that delaying a war with Hezbollah will only embolden the group. "Let's say Israel says, 'Wait, we have to organize—we'll attack you in two years.' What do you think Hezbollah will do? Stand in place?"
The Biden administration's approach to the situation has been criticized by Israeli military officials, who believe that the administration's focus on restraining Israel has emboldened Hezbollah, making war more likely. The officials claim that the administration has withheld arms and delayed their transfer to Israel, which has led Hezbollah to take the threat of an Israeli attack less seriously.
The situation has become increasingly complex, with Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, threatening a battle "with no limitations, no rules, and no ceilings" if Israel expands the scope of the current conflict. Nasrallah has even threatened to attack EU member state Cyprus if its military facilities are used by Israel in the looming confrontation.
The Biden administration, through its envoy Amos Hochstein, has been trying to mediate the situation and explore ways to restore calm to the Israeli-Lebanese frontier. However, Hezbollah has flatly rejected the premise of Hochstein's initiative, insisting that the war in Gaza must first come to an end.
The View:
The escalating situation in northern Israel has become increasingly complex, with the public sentiment strongly supporting decisive military action against Hezbollah. However, the military establishment recognizes the potential challenges and limitations of a full-scale offensive.
One significant obstacle to a diplomatic resolution is Hezbollah's rejection of the U.S. suggestions to use its influence with Hamas to encourage its acceptance of the proposed ceasefire. This refusal by Hezbollah to engage in diplomacy is a significant roadblock to finding a peaceful solution.
Additionally, a concession short of a full cessation of Hezbollah's rocket fire may be enough to unlock a political settlement. This could involve a redeployment of Hezbollah's elite forces and anti-tank units away from the border, which may be a more achievable compromise than a complete cessation of hostilities.
Furthermore, Washington's inability to force a ceasefire in Gaza, coupled with Iran and Hezbollah's determination to continue extracting a price from Israel via Lebanon, have precluded a diplomatic resolution. This lack of progress on the diplomatic front has further contributed to the escalation of the conflict.
The Israeli government is facing increasing pressure from the public to take decisive action against Hezbollah. However, the military establishment's recognition of the potential challenges and limitations of a full-scale offensive may be pushing the government towards exploring the possibility of a negotiated settlement to avoid a protracted conflict. It appears that the time for diplomacy may be coming to an end, and the time for war is almost here.
TLDR:
Volatile situation in northern Israel as Hezbollah reportedly launches over 5,000 missiles and drones since October 7th.
Israel's military plans signal a shift from containment to more assertive action, but the group has a vast army and an estimated 150,000 missiles.
Approximately 70,000 civilians have been evacuated from the northern region, as their homes are bombarded by Hezbollah's attacks.
Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is seen as not wanting a larger war, but the situation may escalate due to a weak U.S. president and Iran's regional influence.
The Biden administration's approach has been criticized by Israeli military officials, who believe that the administration's focus on restraining Israel has emboldened Hezbollah.
Hezbollah has rejected the U.S. suggestions to use its influence with Hamas to encourage its acceptance of the proposed ceasefire, a significant roadblock to finding a peaceful solution.
A concession short of a full cessation of Hezbollah's rocket fire may be enough to unlock a political settlement, involving the redeployment of Hezbollah's elite forces and anti-tank units away from the border.
The Israeli government faces increasing pressure from the public to take decisive action against Hezbollah, while the military establishment recognizes the potential challenges and limitations of a full-scale offensive.