The Consequences of a Russian Victory in Ukraine: A Bleak Future for Europe's Neighbors
The implications of Russia's potential success in the Ukraine war, and the ripple effects it could have on neighboring countries and the broader European geopolitical landscape.
The Story:
The situation in Ukraine has far-reaching implications, not just for Europe, but for the entire global order. If Russia's invasion of Ukraine succeeds, the consequences would be dire, as evidenced by the events unfolding in neighboring Georgia.
In Georgia, a billionaire leader named Bidzina Ivanishvili who runs now runs his native country from an unelected position as chairman of the ruling Georgian Dream party, made his fortune in Russia, has aligned himself with Moscow and is attempting to undermine his country's democratic institutions. As a group of 67 current and former Georgian diplomats have stated, "It is completely clear that Bidzina Ivanishvili and 'Georgian Dream' have changed the foreign policy course from the West to Russia." Ivanishvili has accused a "global party of war" of trying to block Georgia from asserting its sovereignty and has proposed a law that would suppress civil society organizations, similar to the one used by Russia to crackdown on dissent. The Georgian government has twice proposed a law on foreign agents similar to the one used by Russia to suppress any nonprofit that receives grants from outside the country and doesn't toe the Kremlin line. Ivanishvili says the same forces are now trying to unseat his government and impose foreign values such as LGBTQ+ rights, because he refuses to open a second front against Russia.
As 67 current and former Georgian diplomats have stated, "It is completely clear that Bidzina Ivanishvili and 'Georgian Dream' have changed the foreign policy course from the West to Russia."
The events unfolding in Georgia are but a precursor to what could happen elsewhere once Russia would be triumphant in Ukraine. Putin would be emboldened even further, having successfully build a war economy, possessing an army which has successfully advanced readiness decades forward, backed by a population that has shown tolerance of big wars. He would definitely be encouraged to undertake further aggressive actions against neighbouring states in hopes of rewriting borders to rectify the loss of territory and prestige his regime believes followed the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Moreover, Russian triumph in Ukraine would have significant economic consequences. Putin would gain control over a significant portion of the world's wheat exports, allowing him to weaponize food as he has already done with energy. This would have far-reaching implications, potentially fueling food shortages and instability across the globe.
NATO would find itself discredited and European Union weakened would begin to face some of their biggest tests as Russia would inevitably further expand its ambitions to reclaim lost territories elsewhere. Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which states that an attack on one member is an attack on all, may not be sacrosanct, as weakened states w would see far-right parties demanding "peace" with Putin, leading to unenforceable peace treaties as international agreements would be routinely breached with impunity. This instability would be further exacerbated as former Soviet Union territories under threat would be forced to spend fortunes on defence, reintroduce conscription, and even invest in nuclear weapons to protect themselves from Russian threats.
The View:
The stakes are high, and the potential consequences of a Russian victory in Ukraine are truly alarming. The events unfolding in Georgia serve as a stark warning of what the future might hold. Ivanishvili's embrace of the Kremlin's rhetoric and his efforts to undermine Georgia's democratic institutions are a clear indication of the corrosive influence that a Russian triumph would have on the region.
It is essential that the international community stands firm in its support for Ukraine and its commitment to the rules-based global order. Abandoning Ukraine would not only betray the principles of democracy and human rights but would also embolden authoritarian regimes around the world to pursue their own expansionist agendas.
Notably, each time the Russians think they have "won" in a conflict under Putin - be it in Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014, or Syria in 2015 - they become overconfident in their abilities and soon attempt even bolder operations, as observed by Dara Massicot of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. This pattern underscores the need for a resolute and unwavering response from the international community.
The West must be willing to make the necessary sacrifices to ensure that Ukraine can withstand Russian aggression. This may require a significant investment in military aid, the rebuilding of the arms industry, and even the reintroduction of conscription in some European countries. The cost may be high, but it is a small price to pay to preserve the stability and security of the entire continent.
The time for complacency and appeasement has long passed. The world is at a critical juncture, and the decisions made today will shape the future of global affairs for generations to come. The world must stand united in defense of Ukraine and the principles of democracy, or risk the emergence of a new era of authoritarian expansion and the erosion of the international order as we know it.
TLDR:
If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, it will embolden Moscow to further assert its control and influence over its neighboring countries, with devastating consequences.
Georgia is already witnessing the creeping authoritarianism and pro-Russian posturing of its billionaire leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili, who is actively working to suppress civil society and undermine the country's Western orientation.
A Russian victory would result in its control over a significant portion of global wheat exports would allow it to wield food as a weapon, further destabilizing the region.
Putin's success would embolden him to continue his campaign of aggression, posing a grave threat to the stability and prosperity of the entire European continent.
NATO and the EU, the cornerstones of European security and cooperation, would be severely weakened, potentially leading to their disintegration and the erosion of the international rules-based order.