Sparks to Fly: Biden and Trump Face Off in Highly Anticipated Debate

As Biden and Trump gear up for a pivotal 2024 election, substance often takes a backseat to style, as voters are more swayed by the candidates' ability to connect with their emotions.

Jun 24, 2024

The Facts:

The 2024 presidential debate between President Biden and former President Trump is expected to be one of the most consequential in recent history. Both candidates have vastly different strategies and goals for the high-stakes encounter.

The debate Trump will be the first of two scheduled for 2023, marking the earliest encounter ever by two presumptive presidential nominees since the beginning of televised debates in 1960.

Biden's team hopes to frame the election as a choice, casting the president as a steady, experienced leader and Trump as an agent of chaos seeking revenge against rivals. They plan to remind viewers of the tumultuous moments of Trump's first term and argue that the former president would prioritize the interests of corporations and the wealthy over regular Americans. Biden's challenge will be to push back against Trump's claims without getting drawn into a purely adversarial exchange. As Biden prepares at Camp David, working through potential questions and responses with his team, Trump has been less traditional in his approach.

The choice of CNN hosts as moderators is seen as favorable to Biden, with the potential for them to intervene and assist him if needed, as Candy Crowley did for Obama in 2012.

Trump is expected to seek to rattle Biden with attacks on his age and competence, hoping that the incumbent will appear weak or make mistakes. Trump and his campaign believe the economy is the key issue that matters most to voters, and they will look to hammer Biden on high-profile instances of violent crime. Trump has a significant opportunity to stay focused on Biden's record in office and contrast it with his own, which could earn him the victory in November

The debate rules, such as silencing microphones, may backfire and make Biden appear even more confused if he feels the urge to respond to Trump's needling.

Rather than holding extensive debate prep sessions, Trump has been meeting with allies like Senator Marco Rubio and former adviser Kellyanne Conway to discuss key themes. His campaign says he will rely on his ability to handle tough interviews and deliver lengthy rally speeches, claiming he demonstrates "elite stamina." Trump's strategy is to frame the election as a referendum on Biden's handling of the economy and competence in office, portraying the Democrat's presidency as a failure. He is expected to attack Biden's age and mental acuity, hoping to rattle the president and portray him as weak and incompetent. Republican allies have been circulating videos of Biden stumbling or appearing confused, which Democrats have dismissed as "cheap-fakes."

The debate will provide an opportunity for both candidates to reassure the public about their age and fitness for a second term. The first 2020 debate drew 73 million viewers, and the upcoming debate is expected to draw similarly high viewership.

The debate will be held in Atlanta without a studio audience, and the candidates' microphones will be muted except when it is their turn to speak. Biden won the coin flip to choose the side of the stage, meaning Trump will have the final word in closing arguments.

The View:

Debates in the modern era rarely dramatically shift the trajectory of an election campaign, with most episodes confirming the existing direction rather than shifting the path. This is an important consideration as Biden and Trump approach the upcoming debate.

It's clear that both Biden and Trump are approaching this debate with vastly different strategies, each hoping to shape the narrative in their favor. While the campaigns and pundits may focus on minor moments and details, what often matters most to typical American voters in a presidential debate is different.

The debate rules, like the length of time given to respond, can reward or punish candidates based on their individual styles and ability to communicate concisely. Voters quickly decide whether the accusations are fair and the responses effective, and these moments matter more than any candidate flub or gaffe. Voters punish candidates who speak beyond their allotted time, which was a major reason many undecided voters turned against Trump in the first 2020 debate. This means that Biden and Trump will need to strike a careful balance between effectively conveying their messages and adhering to the time constraints.

The best examples are John Kerry in the 2004 debates and John McCain in the 2008 debates. Both were commendable public servants with compelling personal narratives, and neither made any mistakes in their debates. However, neither delivered any particularly memorable or impactful statements, leaving many voters feeling unmoved and unaffected. This illustrates that sometimes it is the overall feeling rather than a specific moment that counts in a debate, and Kerry and McCain, despite their qualifications, failed to make a lasting impression on voters.

Biden's team seems to understand the importance of this moment, recognizing that the debate represents a crucial platform to frame the election as a choice between steady leadership and chaotic revenge. Their focus on reminding viewers of the tumult of Trump's first term and highlighting the former president's priorities as favoring the wealthy elite over regular Americans is a savvy move. However, Biden faces a significant challenge in walking the line between pushing back against Trump's claims without falling into the trap of a purely adversarial exchange. The president will need to demonstrate his command of the facts and policy, while also appealing to the emotions and concerns of the electorate.

While most professional debate observers ignore candidates who run long, voters punish them mercilessly. This was a major reason many undecided voters turned so strongly against Mr. Trump after his undisciplined performance in the first debate in 2020. This highlights how voters can be strongly influenced by a candidate's adherence to debate rules and ability to communicate succinctly.

In contrast, Trump's approach appears to be more unorthodox, relying on his ability to handle tough interviews and deliver impassioned rally speeches rather than extensive debate preparation. His strategy of framing the election as a referendum on Biden's presidency, with a focus on attacking the president's age and competence, is a calculated effort to rattle his opponent and portray him as weak and incompetent. This tactic, combined with the circulation of misleading videos, speaks to Trump's willingness to employ questionable tactics in his pursuit of victory.

Voters often respond to style more than substance, and the well-delivered quip lingers longer than the litany of facts. To sway voter opinion, the candidates need to crystallize the stakes of the race and the choice in November with a single memorable line that speaks to the feelings, instincts, and fears of voters. Viewers want to see passion, energy, and even anger from the candidates, but not in a way that may alienate key groups like suburban women and swing voters.

The 1992 town hall debate provides a prime example of how a well-delivered quip can shape voter perceptions. The biggest takeaways were Mr. Bush's inability to explain what the federal deficit meant to him and Mr. Clinton's Oscar-worthy performance as he deftly stood up from his stool and approached an audience member with empathy and compassion, her head nodding in agreement with him throughout the encounter. This illustrates how voter perceptions can diverge from immediate spin and punditry.

The key moments that will have the greatest impact on undecided voters are when the candidates attack each other in defining ways or undermine the political case they want to present. Minuscule moments, verbal miscues, and misremembering details may matter a lot in the spin room and to partisan pundits, but often have little impact on the opinions of many people watching at home.

In the end, it's not the facts, policies, or one-upmanship that matter, but how the candidates make voters feel. Ultimately, this debate represents a clash of vastly different visions for the future of the country. Biden's team seems intent on presenting a steady, experienced leader who can guide the nation through challenging times, while Trump and his allies are banking on their ability to sow doubt and confusion about the incumbent's fitness for office. The stakes could not be higher, and the outcome of this debate could have a profound impact on the trajectory of the 2024 election.

TLDR:

The 2024 presidential debate between Biden and Trump is expected to be one of the most consequential in recent history.
Biden's team aims to frame the election as a choice, portraying Biden as a steady, experienced leader and Trump as an agent of chaos.
Trump is expected to attack Biden's age and competence, hoping to rattle the president and portray him as weak and incompetent.
The debate rules, such as silenced microphones, could potentially backfire and make Biden appear more confused if he feels the urge to respond to Trump's attacks.
Debates in the modern era rarely dramatically shift the trajectory of an election campaign, with most episodes confirming the existing direction rather than shifting the path.
Voters often respond to style more than substance, and the well-delivered quip lingers longer than the litany of facts.
The key moments that will have the greatest impact on undecided voters are when the candidates attack each other in defining ways or undermine the political case they want to present.
Ultimately, it's not the facts, policies, or one-upmanship that matter, but how the candidates make voters feel.