New Nuclear Age: The U.S. Confronts the Realities of China's Expansion and Russia's Threats
China's nuclear expansion and Russia's nuclear threats have shattered the vision of a world with reduced reliance on nuclear weapons, leading to a fundamental shift in U.S nuclear policy.
The Facts:
The Biden administration has faced a dramatic shift in its nuclear policy over the past few years. Initially, the administration had considered making a "no first use" or "sole purpose" declaration, which would have essentially been a promise that the United States would not use nuclear weapons first in a conflict. There were also hopes that the administration might reduce or even scrap America's intercontinental ballistic missile force. However, these plans were ultimately abandoned after European and Asian allies, who are dependent on the American nuclear umbrella, campaigned against the change.
Instead, the Biden administration has committed to continuing missile defense programs and a multidecade refurbishment of the existing US nuclear arsenal. Now, the administration is acknowledging that this existing arsenal may not be enough to deter America's adversaries. Pranay Vaddi, a top National Security Council official, has stated that "absent a change in the trajectory of the adversary arsenal, we may reach a point in the coming years where an increase from current deployed numbers is required, and we need to be fully prepared to execute if the president makes that decision."
The reason for this shift is the rapid nuclear buildup by America's adversaries, particularly China and Russia. China has doubled its nuclear arsenal between 2020 and 2023, and is improving every leg of its strategic nuclear triad: intercontinental bombers, land-based missiles, and ballistic submarines. China is also fielding regional nuclear capabilities that could strike US bases and allies in the Pacific. Russia, on the other hand, has been making repeated threats to use tactical nuclear weapons in its war against Ukraine. The collapse of the Cold War-era arms control agreements with Russia has further exacerbated the situation.
The Biden administration has acknowledged that by the early 2030s, the US will likely face two nuclear peers, not just one. This means that America's nuclear arsenal will have to be capable of destroying two very diverse, sizable great-power target sets, which may require an expansion of the current arsenal. The administration has also highlighted the potential for Russia and China to coordinate their nuclear policies, which would further complicate the situation. The failure of these adversaries to engage in meaningful negotiations has forced the US and its allies to "prepare for a world where nuclear competition occurs without numerical constraints."
The View:
The Biden administration's shift in nuclear policy is a stark acknowledgment of the changing geopolitical landscape and the growing nuclear threat posed by America's adversaries. The president and his team deserve credit for their candor in addressing these challenges, even if it underscores the unprepared state of the US in the face of this new nuclear era. It is clear that the administration's initial vision of a world without nuclear weapons, or at least a reduced reliance on them, has been shattered by the actions of China and Russia.
The rapid nuclear buildup by these adversaries has forced the US to confront the reality that it may need to expand its own nuclear arsenal to maintain a credible deterrent. This is a deeply concerning development, as it represents a return to the kind of nuclear arms race that many believed had been consigned to the past. The Biden team is right to warn that this expansion may be necessary, but it is also incumbent upon them to explore every possible diplomatic avenue to prevent such an outcome.
The administration's acknowledgment that the "prospects for strategic arms control are dim" is a sobering assessment, but it should not be an excuse for inaction. The US must redouble its efforts to engage with China and Russia, using a combination of carrots and sticks to compel them to come back to the negotiating table and agree to meaningful reductions in their nuclear forces.
Ultimately, the Biden administration's shift in nuclear policy is a reflection of the increasingly volatile and unpredictable geopolitical environment. The president and his team must navigate this treacherous landscape with a steady hand, guided by a clear-eyed understanding of the threats facing the nation and a steadfast commitment to protecting American interests and those of its allies.
TLDR:
The Biden administration had initially considered a "no first use" or "sole purpose" declaration, and possibly reducing or scrapping the U.S. intercontinental ballistic missile force.
These plans were ultimately abandoned after U.S. allies in Europe and Asia, who rely on the American nuclear umbrella, campaigned against the change.
Instead, the Biden administration has committed to continuing missile defense programs and refurbishing the existing U.S. nuclear arsenal.
The rapid nuclear buildup by China and Russia, particularly China's doubling of its nuclear arsenal between 2020 and 2023, has forced the U.S. to acknowledge that it may need to expand its own nuclear arsenal to maintain a credible deterrent.
The collapse of Cold War-era arms control agreements with Russia has further exacerbated the situation, leading the U.S. to prepare for a world where "nuclear competition occurs without numerical constraints."
The Biden administration has highlighted the potential for Russia and China to coordinate their nuclear policies, which would further complicate the situation.
The failure of these adversaries to engage in meaningful negotiations has forced the U.S. and its allies to "prepare for a world where nuclear competition occurs without numerical constraints."
Know More:
US strategy and force posture for an era of nuclear tripolarity
Adapting the U.S. Approach to Arms Control and Nonproliferation to a New Era
Insights From:
US Needs More Nuclear Weapons Against China, Russia, Iran, North Korea - Bloomberg
U.S. Considers Expanded Nuclear Arsenal, a Reversal of Decades of Cuts - The New York Times