Modi's Moscow Gambit: Pursuit of an Independent Foreign Policy

In the face of Western pressure, Prime Minister Modi is positioning India as a challenger to the existing global order, driven by the aspirations of a rising power.

Jul 09, 2024

Modi bear-hugs Putin in Moscow, marking deep ties between Russia and India

The Facts:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Moscow to meet with President Vladimir Putin is a significant event that signals India's determination to pursue its own diplomatic path, even as the West continues to isolate Russia over its war on Ukraine. This is Modi's first visit to Russia in five years, and it comes at a time when India has become a major buyer of cheap Russian oil, helping to fill Russia's coffers depleted by international sanctions.

Russia has sought to cast India as a partner in reshaping the Western-dominated global order. Putin has attempted to double down on relationships with global leaders outside the West, pursuing a "multipolar" world order. China has become Russia's most critical partner in this effort, but Putin has also touted relations with other nations including India.

Modi is likely using this trip as an excuse for not attending the recent meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a grouping dominated by China, as he aims to prevent Russia from drifting further into Beijing's orbit. However, domestic constraints may give Modi incentives to use this visit to cast himself as leading a challenge, on behalf of a rising India, to an unequal, West-led global order, which could be popular among young Indians who expect the world order to respond with deference to India's emergence as a great power.

India needs both the United States and Russia to counter China, and is constantly trying to balance its relations between Washington and Moscow. The meeting between Modi and Putin is part of a longstanding strategic partnership between India and Russia, with the two leaders having met multiple times in the past. India has sought to balance its relations between the United States and Russia, refusing to publicly denounce Russia over the Ukraine war despite pressure from the US. This visit is seen as an opportunity for India to reinforce its relations with Russia and counter Russia's growing closeness with China.

At an investment forum in Moscow last December, Mr. Putin praised the Indian leader for pursuing an independent foreign policy and refusing to bow to Western pressure. Mr. Modi hasn't been "scared, intimidated or forced into taking actions or decisions that would go against the national interests of India and the Indian people," Mr. Putin said.

India might be seeking to reinforce its relations with Russia to counter Russia's growing closeness with China. India needs American backing against China's potential aggressions, but Russia is India's largest supplier of military equipment. India has sought to diversify its sources of military supplies and pursue defense cooperation agreements, including with the United States.

To this Prime Minister Modi has stated, "I am the only major leader besides Xi Jinping who will talk to you — but I won't talk to Xi and you, only you." This suggests that Modi is positioning himself as the only major leader, acceptable to the West ,willing to engage with Putin.

In balancing its growing relations with the West, the Indian government has emphasized that the relations with Russia are not aimed at any third party, and that the summit is of "great importance" to India. However, the timing of the visit, as NATO leaders gather in Washington, has raised questions about a potential shift in India's foreign policy under the politically wounded Prime Minister Modi. Indian officials have downplayed the significance of the timing, stating that the annual summit between Modi and Putin has not been held since 2021 and is now being held.

The View:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Moscow is a bold and defiant move, demonstrating his unwavering determination to carve out an independent foreign policy path for India, even as the West continues to isolate Russia over the Ukraine war. Modi's refusal to bow to Western pressure and his willingness to maintain close ties with Putin is a clear signal that he is not afraid to challenge the dominant global order. The optics of this visit, as NATO leaders gather in Washington, are particularly striking, and they suggest that Modi is perhaps using this opportunity to position himself as a leader who is willing to stand up to the West and promote a more multipolar world order.

Under Modi, foreign policy has become an important tool of domestic politics, as evidenced by his focus on the troubled relationship with Pakistan and the military confrontation during his first re-election bid in 2019. Modi has positioned himself as having raised India to a leadership role, especially among fellow developing nations, and his third term will need its own theme. Young Indians, much like their Chinese counterparts, anticipate that the global order should acknowledge and respect their nation's rise as a major power.

The United States is unlikely to penalize India for continuing its relationship with Russia, as China has emerged as Washington's "principal adversary". In light of this the US may be more willing to accommodate India's position and maintain a pragmatic approach to its relationship with New Delhi, even as it continues to pressure other countries to distance themselves from Russia.

By strengthening India's partnership with Russia, Modi is sending a message that he is not afraid to defy the international community and pursue his own agenda. However, this visit is not without its risks. Modi's political standing has been weakened in recent months, and he will need to carefully navigate the delicate balancing act between India's growing ties with the US and its longstanding relationship with Russia. The prime minister must find a way to reinforce India's position as a global power without alienating its Western allies, a task that will require a deft diplomatic touch. Nevertheless, Modi's words and actions in Moscow will be closely scrutinized, and he will be under pressure to demonstrate that he is capable of leading India on the global stage. The prime minister's ability to promote India's interests and command deference from the international community will be a crucial test of his leadership, and his visit to Russia could serve as a defining moment

TLDR:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Moscow is a significant event that signals India's determination to pursue its own diplomatic path, even as the West continues to isolate Russia over its war on Ukraine.
Russia has sought to cast India as a partner in reshaping the Western-dominated global order, with Putin attempting to build relationships with global leaders outside the West.
India needs both the United States and Russia to counter China, and is constantly trying to balance its relations between Washington and Moscow.
Modi is likely using this trip as an excuse for not attending the recent meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as he aims to prevent Russia from drifting further into China's orbit.
The timing of the visit, as NATO leaders gather in Washington, has raised questions about a potential shift in India's foreign policy under the politically wounded Prime Minister Modi.
Modi's visit to Russia is seen as an opportunity for India to reinforce its relations with Russia and counter Russia's growing closeness with China.
Prime Minister Modi's words and actions in Moscow will be closely scrutinized, as he seeks to demonstrate India's ability to promote its interests and command deference from the international community.