Modi's Humiliation: India's Democratic Resilience Triumphs

The Indian general elections have dealt a significant blow to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP's dominance, signaling a victory for the country's democratic values and pluralism.

Jun 05, 2024

The Facts:

India's recent general elections have been a pivotal moment in the country's political landscape. The announcement of the results was widely anticipated, as it was believed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his right-wing Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would secure a decisive victory, further consolidating their grip on power. However, the actual outcome surprised many, as the BJP fell short of a simple parliamentary majority, necessitating the formation of a coalition government. The BJP's performance was a significant decline from their previous electoral triumph in 2019, when they won 303 out of 543 seats. This time, the party managed to secure only 240 seats, a notable drop in their parliamentary strength. Their campaign slogan of "This time, 400 plus" proved to be overly ambitious, as the opposition alliance, known as I.N.D.I.A., came close to matching the BJP's tally.

The opposition I.N.D.I.A. alliance, comprising the once-dominant Indian National Congress party and more than two dozen regional parties, emerged as a formidable force, challenging the BJP's dominance. The alliance's focus on addressing the economic concerns of the electorate, such as unemployment and rising costs of living, resonated with voters who had been disillusioned by the Modi government's policies. Moreover, the I.N.D.I.A. alliance's commitment to upholding India's secular democratic values and standing up to the BJP's Hindutva agenda has been widely hailed as a positive development. The alliance's diverse composition, encompassing a wide range of political parties, suggests that it has the potential to serve as a viable alternative to the BJP's dominance.

Throughout its tenure, the BJP government has been accused of using authoritarian tactics to consolidate its power. This includes capturing or subverting major institutions, using government agencies to target political rivals, and effectively turning media outlets into propaganda arms. The party's vast financial resources and its ability to engineer defections from other parties have also been cited as contributors to its dominance

While the BJP government has touted its economic achievements, such as high GDP growth, the reality on the ground tells a different story. Voters do not believe that the GDP growth under the Modi government has translated into tangible benefits in their wallets, suggesting a disconnect between the government's messaging and the public's lived experience. One example of this is the collapse of Modi's support in Uttar Pradesh, India's most-populous state, amounted to a collective rebellion from millions of people left behind in one of the world's fastest-growing economies. India's 8% annual expansion has spawned a billionaire elite and a growing middle class, but the government has failed to deliver for more than 600 million Indians who survive on $3.65 or less a day. Inequality surged in the first decade of Modi's rule, with the richest 1% earning almost a quarter of total income, the highest share since at least the 1920s. The combined wealth of India's two richest men, Adani and Mukesh Ambani, is more than double what the nation spends on defense every year/

Given the BJP's failure to secure a majority, Modi now has little choice but to govern with more humility and rely on unpredictable regional parties to keep his coalition together.

The View:

The election results have been a significant blow to the BJP's and Modi's aura of invincibility. The government's heavy-handed tactics, including the capture and subversion of key institutions, the use of government agencies against opposition leaders, and the effective control of the media, have failed to secure the decisive victory that the party had anticipated. The performance of the I.N.D.I.A. alliance, which has managed to nearly match the BJP's tally despite the deeply unfair electoral playing field, is a testament to the resilience of India's democratic institutions and the will of the people to stand against the BJP's Hindutva agenda.

The I.N.D.I.A. alliance's performance in the election is an important declaration that there are still parties in India that are united by a commitment to constitutional values. The rapid rise in inequality and the over-used politics of religion must be slowed, and the government will have to tread a more inclusive path going forward. Modi's opponents succeeded because they were putting front and center the idea of a two-speed economy where the fruits of high growth have largely benefited the haves versus the have-nots.

The election outcome is a clear rejection of the BJP's prioritization of social conservatism and welfare delivery over substantive reforms and effective governance. Voters have expressed their discontent with the government's failure to deliver on its initial promises, such as job creation and private-sector-friendly reforms. While Modi and the BJP will remain in power, their dependence on coalition partners who do not espouse the Hindutva ideology may curb their ability to further undermine democratic institutions and terrorize minority communities.

This election has reopened the country's political space and provided cautious hope for the restoration of the constitutional values and the proper functioning of parliament and state institutions. The changes wrought by the BJP's Hindutva movement over the past decade have not been uprooted, and there is still much work to be done. However, supporters of India's secular democracy can now breathe a sigh of relief, as the BJP's dominance has been challenged, and the country's political landscape has regained a semblance of balance and pluralism. India is an unpredictable country, and this fact has been forgotten over the past decade.

TLDR:

The BJP's performance in the general elections marked a significant decline from their previous triumph, falling short of a simple parliamentary majority.
The opposition INDIA alliance, comprising the Indian National Congress party and regional parties, emerged as a formidable force, challenging the BJP's dominance.
The INDIA alliance's focus on addressing economic concerns, such as unemployment and rising costs of living, resonated with voters.
The BJP government has been accused of using authoritarian tactics to consolidate its power, including capturing or subverting major institutions and using government agencies to target political rivals.
Voters believe that the GDP growth under the Modi government has not translated into tangible benefits in their wallets, suggesting a disconnect between the government's messaging and the public's lived experience.
The election results have been a significant blow to the BJP's and Modi's aura of invincibility, indicating a rejection of the party's prioritization of social conservatism and welfare delivery over substantive reforms and effective governance.
The changes wrought by the BJP's Hindutva movement over the past decade have not been uprooted, and there is still much work to be done, but the country's political landscape has regained a semblance of balance and pluralism.

Know More:

Raghuram Rajan, Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and Former Reserve Bank of India Governor, discusses his home country's economic prospects as Prime Minister Narendra Modi secures reelection for a third term despite his ruling party being poised to lose its majority in parliament.

Raghuram Rajan on India's Election and Modi's Future - Bloomberg

Insights From:

Opinion | Indians Are Finally Standing Up to Modi’s Politics of Hate - The New York Times

India Election: Millions of Poor Stun Narendra Modi in Setback for BJP - Bloomberg

Modi Learns the Limits of Hype in India's Election - Bloomberg