Macron's Gamble Backfires
Macron's "revolution" has been downgraded to a mere "renaissance," and now, the prospect of a "French revolution" loom, with the president's political future in jeopardy.
The Facts:
French President Emmanuel Macron's gamble to dissolve the National Assembly and call for snap elections has backfired spectacularly. Macron surprisingly dissolved the National Assembly and called a snap election after his party's decisive loss to the far-right National Rally in the European Parliament election.
The results of the first-round parliamentary votes have put his arch-nemesis, Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally party, within reach of either an absolute or a relative majority. This represents a bleak watershed moment for French politics, as the National Rally, which has tried to shake off its history of xenophobia and anti-Semitism, and even advocated for "Frexit" and lifting sanctions on Russia as recently as 2017, has now emerged as the dominant political force in the country. Le Pen's party scored around 33% or 12 million votes, putting them within reach of an absolute or relative majority.
Macron's plea to reject extremes and embrace his pro-reform "revolution" has fallen on deaf ears, as voters have flocked to Le Pen's party, drawn by its mix of budget giveaways and anti-immigration rhetoric. The left-wing bloc, led by the firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has also seen a significant surge, scoring around 28% of the votes, not far behind the National Rally. This has forced Macron to steer a new course, with his entourage now open to forming a "republican front" with left-wing candidates he once saw as toxic, even going as far as to suspend his unpopular reform of unemployment insurance.
Macron's party, which scored around 21% of the votes, has been described as lying in "tatters" by former President François Hollande, Macron's one-time mentor who is now eyeing a return to politics. Some commentators speculate that Macron wants the National Rally to govern until the 2027 presidential election, hoping that their incompetence will set the stage for a shift back toward the center. Macron is facing the prospect of either a hostile cohabitation with Le Pen or a chaotic minority government. A far-right or left-bloc absolute majority could see French economic output flatline next year as pricey spending plans are rolled out.
Macron's initial success in the 2017 presidential election was largely due to the unpopularity of the incumbent and a scandal involving the likely conservative winner. The far right, far left, center left, and center right still tend to win at least a fifth of the vote in the first round of French presidential elections. Macron's haughty and imperious style, as well as his perception as a "philosopher-king," have harmed his political standing in France and made him an exceptionally hated political figure. Macron's centrism has acquired a rightward tilt, and his government has resorted to constitutional shortcuts to advance his agenda, making it difficult for him to continue to argue that he is the only thing standing in the way of right-wing extremism.
With only three years left in Macron's second term and the imminent prospect of either a hostile cohabitation with Le Pen or a chaotic minority government, it is hard to see this as anything other than the 46-year-old's political twilight.
The View:
Macron's centrism and technocratic approach have failed to transform the French political landscape, as the old ideological cleavages of left and right continue to persist. His "revolution" has been downgraded to a mere "renaissance," and now, it appears that a "French revolution" may be on the way, but Macron will not be the one leading it.
Macron was lucky in his initial triumph in the 2017 presidential election, but his technocratic "if you're not with us, you're unreasonable" approach ultimately failed to transform the political landscape. His haughty and imperious style, which made him an exceptionally hated political figure, has undoubtedly contributed to his downfall. Moreover, Macron's failure to transform the movement he started into a proper political party that is not dependent on a charismatic leader, and his charisma gone, the center's prospects for 2027 look bleak.
Macron's inability to connect with voters, particularly on issues like inflation and immigration, has been a significant factor in the rise of the far-right and the left-wing blocs. His economic record, while good overall, has failed to address the frustrations of rural and deindustrialized France, leaving many voters feeling worse off than their parents or retired grandparents.
Technocracy tends to provoke a backlash, as it allows populists to argue that there are no uniquely rational solutions to complex problems. Macron's strategy to create a powerful centrism in France has failed, and this serves as a lesson for other European leaders. His centralist project, which aimed to take the best from the left and right, was always likely to alienate both sides.
With the prospect of either a hostile cohabitation with Le Pen or a chaotic minority government, it's hard to see this as anything other than Macron's political twilight.
TLDR:
Macron's decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call for snap elections has backfired, with the far-right National Rally party gaining significant ground.
The National Rally, once seen as a fringe party, has now emerged as a dominant political force in France, with around 33% or 12 million votes.
The left-wing bloc, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has also seen a significant surge, scoring around 28% of the votes.
Macron's party, which scored around 21% of the votes, has been described as lying in "tatters" by former President François Hollande.
Macron's centrism and technocratic approach have failed to transform the French political landscape, as the old ideological cleavages of left and right continue to persist.
Macron's haughty and imperious style, as well as his perception as a "philosopher-king," have harmed his political standing in France and made him an exceptionally hated political figure.
Macron's inability to connect with voters, particularly on issues like inflation and immigration, has been a significant factor in the rise of the far-right and the left-wing blocs.
The prospect of either a hostile cohabitation with Le Pen or a chaotic minority government has led to the assessment that Macron's political twilight is imminent.
Insights From:
Why Macronism Failed - Project Syndicate
Macron’s Electoral Gamble Could End With Ungovernable France - Bloomberg