From Boom to Bust: The Global Population Challenge in the 21st Century
The world's population growth is slowing, and the implications are both profound and concerning.
The Facts:
Humanity's population growth has been an astonishing feat in the modern era. The global population has increased from a mere 500 million during the time of Christopher Columbus to over 8 billion today. However, a remarkable demographic shift is now underway, with fertility rates declining across the world. According to the United Nations Population Division (UNPD), the global population is projected to reach 10.4 billion by the mid-2080s, with an upper bound of more than 12 billion by the end of the century. However, other estimates suggest that the global population may peak at a lower level and earlier, with the European Commission's Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration projecting a peak of 9.8 billion in the 2070s, and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimating a peak of 9.7 billion in 2064.
By 2064, fewer babies will be born than people will die, which will be the first time this has happened in centuries. This dramatic decline in fertility rates is a global phenomenon, with countries across the world, including traditionally high-fertility regions, experiencing a fertility slump. In South Korea, the total fertility rate is estimated to have been as low as 0.72 in 2023. In Europe, there is no longer a significant difference between Roman Catholic and Protestant countries, with Italy's current total fertility rate (1.21) being lower than England's (1.44). The fertility decline has also affected the Muslim world, with Iran's total fertility rate now standing at 1.54.
The drivers of this global fertility slump are multifaceted. One theory suggests that as societies progress, people find other ways to find meaning in life, and rearing children takes a backseat to more individualistic pursuits. Another interpretation emphasizes the role of women's education and employment, as rising female autonomy, contraceptive access, and the increasing opportunity cost of having children have contributed to declining fertility rates. Cultural changes, such as the decline in unintended births and a shift towards delayed sexual activity, have also played a part in the fertility decline. Declining religiosity has been another key driver, with a clear correlation between the rise of secularization and the fall of family size. While governments have attempted to implement pro-natal policies to boost fertility rates, these efforts have largely been unsuccessful.
The consequences of declining populations, such as low economic growth, aging populations, and demographic shifts, are causing concerns in many advanced countries. Every major economy will eventually collide with a demographic wall, leading to fiscal pressure from pensions and healthcare costs. Economic growth could collapse and public debt could balloon if policymakers do not maintain budgetary discipline and are unwilling to make tough decisions. Rich countries will need to spend 21% of GDP per year on the elderly by 2050, up from 16% in 2015, with a quarter of that going to pensions. Technological advances may not be enough to offset the budget pressures from aging populations. As World Bank economist Charles Kenny has warned, "Aging populations could reduce economic growth by making workers less mentally agile and reducing the constant generation of new ideas."
The migration of people from regions with high fertility rates to developed countries is likely to drive up right-wing politics, conflict, the spread of infectious diseases, and lack of effective action on climate change. Mass migration to developed countries is seen as a solution to declining fertility, but this raises geopolitical concerns and could contribute to the spread of infectious diseases and conflict. Policymakers will need to carefully navigate these challenges to ensure the long-term sustainability of their economies and societies.
The View:
Elon Musk and others may dream of building a galactic empire, but the reality is that a sub-2.1 global total fertility rate is a more powerful historical force. This demographic transition is coming, and there is nothing we can do to stop it. The consequences of this fertility collapse are both melancholy and concerning.
The advanced countries with declining populations are facing challenges such as low economic growth, empty schools, crowded retirement homes, and a general lack of youthful vitality. This demographic shift is a powerful historical force that is shaping the future. As the populations in developed nations decline, they are grappling with the economic and social implications, from stagnant growth to overburdened social services.
The precipitous decline in population will come a century too late to avert the disastrous consequences of climate change that many fear. This, combined with the flight of people from Africa and the rise of right-wing politics in the developed world, paints a bleak picture for the future. The timing of the demographic shift is unfortunate, as it fails to address the looming environmental challenges that humanity faces.
Additionally, the shift in the global demographic balance towards people with darker pigmentation, many of whom are Muslims, is worrying for the mostly white and mostly Christian peoples who were globally dominant in the past. The changing global demographic landscape is a source of concern for some, as the relative decline of the traditional Western powers raises geopolitical and cultural anxieties.
Immigration may seem like a simple solution to the problem of falling fertility, but the geopolitical consequences of mass migration are anyone's guess. While immigration could help offset declining populations in developed countries, the political and social ramifications of such large-scale movements of people are complex and difficult to predict.
The demographic transition towards lower fertility rates is a powerful historical force that is shaping the future. This shift is leading to challenges for advanced countries, such as economic stagnation, overburdened social services, and a lack of youthful vitality. Additionally, the timing of this demographic shift is unfortunate, as it fails to address the looming environmental challenges that humanity faces. The changing global demographic landscape is also a source of concern for some, as the relative decline of the traditional Western powers raises geopolitical and cultural anxieties. While immigration could help offset declining populations, the political and social ramifications of such large-scale movements of people are complex and difficult to predict.
TLDR:
Global population has grown from 500 million to over 8 billion, but a remarkable demographic shift is now underway
Fertility rates are declining across the world, with estimates suggesting a peak global population of 9.7-9.8 billion in the 2060s-2070s
Drivers of the global fertility slump include societal progress, female empowerment, cultural changes, and declining religiosity
Declining populations pose challenges for advanced economies, including low economic growth, aging populations, and fiscal pressures
Migration from high-fertility to low-fertility regions raises geopolitical concerns and could contribute to the spread of diseases and conflict
Insights From:
Shrinking populations mean less growth and a more fractious world - The Economist
Global Population Collapse Isn't Sci-Fi Anymore: Niall Ferguson - Bloomberg