France Faces Uncertainty: National Rally Paused but Poised to Return

The National Rally's temporary halt isn't a true defeat. The resulting fragmented political landscape may lead to government instability, leaving them with future opportunities.

Jul 10, 2024

The Facts:

The recent legislative elections in France have resulted in an unprecedented political landscape, with no single party or coalition securing a clear majority in the National Assembly. The left-wing alliance, known as the New Popular Front, emerged as the largest bloc with over 180 seats, but still fell short of the 289 seats required for a majority. President Emmanuel Macron's centrist coalition, Together, came in second with more than 160 seats, while the far-right National Rally and its allies won 143 seats.

For the time being Macron has rejected his Prime Minister Gabriel Attal's resignation, asking him to stay on "for the time being" to "assure the stability of the country." The new National Assembly will convene for the first time on July 18, but there is speculation it could be dissolved again soon. This fragmented political landscape has raised concerns about the country's ability to address pressing issues and implement policies effectively.

The New Popular Front's relatively good performance relied on its base of lower-income voters. In the initial round of voting on June 30, Marine Le Pen's National Rally came first with 33% support, leading in more than half of the local races. After the first round, over 200 third-place candidates from the New Popular Front and Mr. Macron's coalition withdrew, allowing other candidates to have clear runs. In what Green leader Marine Tondelier called a "new republican front," French voters were urged to support anyone who could defeat the National Rally candidate. The strong mobilization of left-wing voters, with seven out of ten turning out to support the anti-Le Pen candidate, was particularly remarkable.

The left-wing alliance, led by the controversial Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has asserted its dominance but faces significant challenges in forming a governing majority. Mélenchon has categorically refused to enter into negotiations with Macron's party, stating, "We refuse to enter negotiations with [Macron's] party." This stance has raised concerns about the left's ability to collaborate with other political blocs to find a path forward. The New Popular Front is far from united. Mr. Mélenchon, who does not have a seat in Parliament, has tumultuous relations with the center-left Socialists, Greens, and Communists, all of whom want to prevent him from taking the lead.

The fragmentation of the National Assembly has also raised questions about Macron's political future. While he appears to have prevented a far-right victory, the appeal of the left has seemingly caught him off guard. Macron now faces the task of navigating this complex political landscape, with the possibility of appointing a moderate prime minister as a

The National Rally now holds a historic high of 143 seats in the National Assembly. Its support has expanded beyond its traditional base, with significant increases among white-collar employees, middle-income earners, professionals, and top managers. Since 2022, the party has nearly doubled its support among these groups, with the fastest growth among those earning over 3,000 euros per month. Despite its defeat, the far-right National Rally has experienced a meteoric rise, now benefiting from substantial new financial resources to prepare for future elections and potentially take advantage of political stagnation.

As noted in an editorial by the Ouest-France newspaper, "Unlike the New Popular Front or [Macron's] Together, the National Rally is formed of a single bloc." This unity could become appealing to voters who witness the other coalitions in the national assembly constantly bickering due to their ideological differences and policy divisions, with their only common goal being to keep the National Rally out of power.

The View:

President Macron's gamble to call snap elections has backfired, and he now finds himself in a precarious position. The unexpected surge of the left-wing alliance has exposed the deep divisions within French society, and Macron's centralist agenda has been dealt a significant blow. The assertive and uncompromising stance of Mélenchon and the left-wing bloc suggests that they are unwilling to engage in the necessary political compromises required to form a stable government.

The left-wing alliance's victory was a surprise even to its own leaders, and finding a joint prime minister candidate could deepen divisions within the coalition. There are concerns about the polarizing and extreme nature of the far-left leader Mélenchon, who has been accused of stoking antisemitism. The New Popular Front is far from united, and it may soon begin to splinter due to the tumultuous relations between its component parties.

France has no culture of coalition-building, and the stark differences in their policy agendas, from retirement age to budget priorities and immigration, suggest that the path to a functional government will be arduous and fraught with compromise. Macron's international standing may provide him with a temporary respite, but the domestic political turmoil will inevitably demand his attention.

Political stagnation could benefit the National Rally. Despite Macron's efforts to prevent the rise of the far-right, the National Rally has continued to gain ground. It now finds itself in a stronger position than ever before, with a growing electoral coalition and a good chance in the 2027 presidential election or the next parliamentary election, which could occur sooner rather than later due to the various factions' inability to find common ground and establish a stable government.

In the end, the French people have spoken, and the political landscape has been irrevocably altered.

TLDR:

The recent legislative elections in France have led to an unprecedented political landscape with no single party or coalition securing a clear majority.
The left-wing alliance, known as the New Popular Front, emerged as the largest bloc but fell short of a majority, while President Macron's centrist coalition came in second.
The far-right National Rally and its allies won a significant number of seats, raising concerns about the country's political stability.
Macron has rejected his Prime Minister's resignation, asking him to stay on to ensure stability, but the new National Assembly is expected to convene soon.
The left-wing alliance, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has asserted its dominance but faces challenges in forming a governing majority, as Mélenchon has refused to negotiate with Macron's party.
The fragmentation of the National Assembly has raised questions about Macron's political future and the possibility of appointing a moderate prime minister.
The National Rally has experienced a meteoric rise, benefiting from substantial new financial resources and a unified bloc, which could become appealing to voters amid political stagnation.
The French people have spoken, and the political landscape has been irrevocably altered, with concerns about the country's ability to address pressing issues and implement policies effectively.