Exodus from China: The Surge of Illegal Immigration and Its Implications

Chinese migrants' dangerous journeys to the U.S. highlight their dissatisfaction with the Chinese Communist Party and the ongoing appeal of the American system.

Aug 21, 2024

Chinese illegal immigrant surge at US southern border 'proves our worst fears': lawmakers | Fox News

The Facts:

The United States has seen a significant increase in illegal immigration from China in recent years, with the COVID-19 pandemic serving as a catalyst. Since the beginning of the pandemic, more than 1 million people have left China, driven by factors such as restrictive lockdown policies, economic downturn, and tightened political control. While most of these migrants are leaving China legally, since January 2023 there have been over 50,000 encounters between Chinese nationals and U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents at the U.S.-Mexico border, a 1,000% increase compared to 2022 and 2021 combined. This unusual surge in migration has triggered heightened scrutiny from the media and lawmakers alike.

Many are starting their journeys from as far away as La Paz, Bolivia, which is about 7,000 miles and nine border crossings from Tijuana, Mexico. This highlights the significant distances and challenges these migrants are willing to undertake to reach the U.S. border. Additionally, Ecuador has suspended visa-free arrivals for Chinese nationals, which was the most popular access point for Chinese migrants to reach the U.S. border. This change in policy has likely contributed to the shift in migration patterns.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security deported 116 Chinese migrants on a charter flight from Texas to China, highlighting the government's efforts to address this issue. The new measures to stem the flow of Chinese migrants into the U.S. over the southern border have created a sense of urgency among Chinese nationals seeking to enter the country. Many are now taking greater risks, driven by the belief that a potential second Trump administration could lead to even more restrictive immigration policies.

Chinese nationals have made up only 2% of all migrant encounters at the border since last October, but the unusual uptick in migration has triggered intensified scrutiny from the media and lawmakers. The crackdown on migration controls emanating from Washington as illegal immigration features prominently in the 2024 presidential election is catching Chinese migrants yet to make the journey.

The Ecuadorian travel data indicates that 71% of these Chinese migrants are male, and 53% are between the ages of 20 and 39. A similar pattern is observed in the Honduran government's estimates, which suggest that 65% of the migrants are male and 56% are between 21 and 40 years old. This gender and age imbalance has fueled a concerning narrative within the government and the national security community, with some arguing that these migrants could be entering the U.S. to conduct espionage on behalf of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). As Rep. Mike Ezell expressed, "It would be 'nonsense' to think that China 'would not use an open border to their advantage.'" He likened the migrants to the unmarked military personnel Russia used during its 2014 invasion of Crimea and described skepticism of this rhetoric as CCP 'talking points.'

However, there are other, more plausible explanations for this demographic profile. China's decades-long one-child policy has resulted in an excess male population of nearly 35 million, leaving many men with poor prospects for finding a spouse within China. Additionally, the notoriously dangerous and physically strenuous journey through the Darién Gap makes it a more viable option for young, single men. Furthermore, the migrants traveling through the U.S. southern border are often first-generation college graduates from rural areas, in contrast with the more affluent Chinese migrants who choose to immigrate to countries like Canada, Japan, and Singapore.

As Zhou, a 37-year-old Chinese man who sold betel nut in southern China, explained, "Oppressive governments are more terrible than tigers," citing a quote by Confucius to justify his willingness to risk the journey to the U.S. border. Similarly, an investor in his 30s from western China's Ningxia region, who began his journey with his wife and 3-year-old son in Mexico in June, said, "I'll start over in a new place," after his wealth was virtually wiped out in the pandemic and he found the competition in China too fierce. "I know the U.S. is not a paradise, but I know where hell is," another migrant said while waiting in Mexico for an asylum appointment.

Despite the costly nature of this migration, which averages $20,000 per person, these educated middle-class Chinese citizens are becoming increasingly desperate to leave their homeland. The economic downturn, coupled with the tightening of emigration laws and restrictions on moving money out of the country, have driven many to flee before their options become even more limited.

The View:

The arrival of Chinese migrants at the U.S. southern border suggests that the U.S. system remains more attractive than the authoritarian system in China, as many migrants express doubts about China's long-term economic prospects. This influx of migrants could be viewed as a sign of dissatisfaction with the CCP's governance and the desire for greater political and economic freedoms.

While the scale of this migration has been relatively modest, a larger exodus of youth and the middle class could strain the Chinese Communist Party's ability to meet its strategic objectives in the future. The loss of skilled and educated individuals could hinder China's economic growth and technological advancement, potentially undermining the CCP's ambitions for global influence and dominance.

Under Chinese leader Xi Jinping, China's economic growth has slowed, leading to layoffs and increased competition, while blanket surveillance and censorship have created an atmosphere of fear that some find unbearable. The CCP views this outward-bound migration as an embarrassment for its national image and a liability for its national interests, as evidenced by its muted response to Ecuador's decision to require visas for Chinese nationals and its absence from recent visa-free travel agreements signed by Nicaragua. The CCP likely sees this exodus as a potential threat to its control and is concerned about the long-term implications for its strategic objectives.

The arrival of these Chinese migrants at the U.S. southern border in search of a better life is seen as a testament to the continued attractiveness of the American system, particularly in the context of the systemic competition between democracy and authoritarianism. Many of the migrants express doubts about China's long-term economic prospects and have lost faith in the social contract that has failed to deliver long-term economic security in exchange for political control.

TLDR:

Significant increase in illegal immigration from China, with over 1 million people leaving the country since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Over 50,000 encounters between Chinese nationals and U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents at the U.S.-Mexico border since January 2023, a 1,000% increase compared to 2022 and 2021 combined.
Migrants are taking longer, more dangerous routes, often starting their journeys from as far as La Paz, Bolivia, and Ecuador suspending visa-free arrivals for Chinese nationals.
U.S. government has deported 116 Chinese migrants from Texas to China, highlighting efforts to address the issue.
Demographic profile of the migrants, with 71% being male and 53% between the ages of 20 and 39, has fueled concerns about potential national security implications.
Migrants are often first-generation college graduates from rural areas, motivated by factors such as economic downturn, tightened political control, and loss of wealth in China.
Exodus of youth and middle class could strain the Chinese Communist Party's ability to meet its strategic objectives, potentially hindering China's economic growth and technological advancement.

The arrival of these migrants at the U.S. southern border is seen as a testament to the continued attractiveness of the American system, particularly in the context of the systemic competition between democracy and authoritarianism.