Despite Economic Downturn, Indian Youth Stand by Modi
Despite Economic Downturn, Indian Youth Stand by Modi
Despite a decade of BJP rule, young Indian voters remain dissatisfied with the lack of job opportunities, yet still favor Narendra Modi's party in the upcoming elections
The Story:
India is on the verge of holding the world's largest election, with nearly 950 million registered voters set to cast their ballots to elect the 543 members of the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament. Most analysts expect Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to win another five-year term, despite the party's mixed record in managing the economy.
While the Indian economy has grown faster than many competitors in recent years, the BJP's time in power has been marked by disappointments. The party came to office promising double-digit growth rates, but has never achieved that goal. Worse still, it has struggled to generate the jobs needed for the millions of young people entering the workforce.
Critics point to several BJP policy missteps, including the sudden withdrawal of 85% of India's paper money in 2016, the bungled introduction of agricultural reforms, and the ongoing protection of India's big industrial conglomerates from competition. These mistakes have left many Indians in precarious work and held back investment in manufacturing, which could offer more people more jobs.
Unemployment remains stubbornly high, especially among educated young Indians, with 41% of graduates under 25 being jobless, compared to just 8% of those with primary or lower-secondary education. Despite these economic challenges, the BJP continues to enjoy strong support, particularly among its core base of Hindu nationalists.
The party has systematically worked to meet the demands of this group, revoking the autonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir, presiding over the opening of a new Hindu temple at Ayodhya, and proposing a "uniform civil code" that would impose common marriage, alimony, and custody arrangements on all Indian citizens, regardless of religion.
The BJP has also sought to appeal to a broader range of voters, including the growing urban middle class, the rural poor, and women. Measures such as cracking down on corruption, improving the business environment, building infrastructure, and launching welfare programs have helped the party win over these constituencies.
The party's promise to continue this agenda is likely to secure the support of the urban middle class, while its welfare initiatives have boosted its standing among the rural poor and women.
“We are struggling, but all the good things my family has—cooking gas, bank accounts, electricity—we owe to Mr Modi,”
- Siyaram, a 23-year-old who runs a food cart in Patna.
Meanwhile, the opposition parties in India remain divided and weak, unable to mount a united challenge to the BJP. Negotiations to form a cohesive alliance have proven tortuous, and the opposition has yet to name a credible alternative candidate for the prime ministership.
With Narendra Modi's personal popularity remaining high, particularly among the young and aspirational, defeating the BJP juggernaut will be a daunting task.
The View:
The upcoming Indian general election represents a critical juncture for the world's largest democracy. While the BJP's economic record has been mixed at best, the party's adept maneuvering to consolidate its core Hindu nationalist base, coupled with its successful outreach to a broader range of voters, has positioned it as the clear favorite to retain power.
The BJP's ability to present itself as the champion of Hindu interests, while simultaneously appealing to the urban middle class, the rural poor, and women, is a testament to the party's strategic acumen. By systematically chipping away at the autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir, facilitating the construction of a Hindu temple at Ayodhya, and proposing a "uniform civil code," the BJP has solidified its standing among its Hindu nationalist base, a bloc that remains crucial to the party's electoral success.
At the same time, the BJP's efforts to address concerns around corruption, infrastructure, and economic well-being have resonated with a broader swathe of the electorate. The party's welfare initiatives, such as the expansion of rural income guarantee schemes and the provision of basic amenities like toilets and cooking gas, have helped it make inroads among the poor and marginalized, further bolstering its electoral prospects.
The party’s potential to associate the government's programs and improvements in living standards directly with Prime Minister Modi has helped the party maintain his popularity, particularly among young voters. The party's strong social media presence and Modi's direct communication have allowed them to effectively target and engage with this key demographic.
The inability of the opposition parties to mount a cohesive and effective challenge to the BJP juggernaut is a significant handicap. Their failure to coalesce around a strong, charismatic leader and present a compelling alternative vision for the country has left many voters uninspired and willing to give the BJP the benefit of the doubt, despite the party's mixed economic record.
Ultimately, the upcoming Indian election will be a crucial test of the country's democratic resilience. The BJP's assertive brand of Hindu nationalism, coupled with its adept political maneuvering, poses a formidable challenge to those who seek a more inclusive and equitable vision for India.
As the world watches, the outcome of this election will have far-reaching implications for the future of the world's largest democracy.
TLDR:
The Indian economy under the Modi government has struggled to generate sufficient job growth and achieve the promised double-digit growth rates, disappointing many young voters.
However, the BJP has effectively appealed to its core base of Hindu nationalists by enacting policies that cater to their Hindutva ideology, such as revoking Kashmir's autonomy and building a new temple at the Ayodhya site.
The party has also made inroads with the growing urban middle class by promising good governance and national pride, as well as the rural poor and women through various welfare schemes and targeted benefits.
The opposition parties remain divided and lack a strong, unified challenger to Modi, making it difficult to mount an effective electoral challenge to the BJP's dominance.
Despite the government's economic shortcomings, the BJP's ability to construct a diverse coalition of voters, combined with the weaknesses of the opposition, has put the party in a strong position to win another term in the upcoming national elections.
Insights From:
Even disillusioned young Indian voters favour Narendra Modi - The Economist