Denial and Delusion: Biden Dismisses Troubling Polling Data

The president's declining popularity and unwillingness to make adjustments to his campaign strategy pose a serious threat to the Democratic party's chances in November.

Jun 17, 2024

The Facts:

President Biden's polling numbers are a major concern for the Democratic party. According to the FiveThirtyEight polling aggregator, he trails presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump by an average of around 1 percentage point nationally. Biden's approval rating also hovers around 38 percent, one of the lowest for a sitting president in decades. The situation is even worse in crucial swing states, with Biden trailing Trump in five of the six states he won in 2020, including by 12 percent in Nevada and 10 percent in Georgia. Despite a strong economy with the stock market reaching record highs and inflation easing, Biden's disapproval rating has continued to rise from 53 percent last fall to over 56 percent today. Polls suggest that several of Biden's core constituencies, including young people, Black people, and Hispanics, are increasingly "Trump-curious," with 30 percent of Black men in swing states saying they would definitely or probably vote for Trump.

The Democratic response to this consistency blends unwarranted confidence and unwarranted fatalism, with beliefs that Trump's lead is unsustainable, voters aren't paying close attention yet, and polls don't matter until after the conventions. There is also a "What can we do?" irritation with anyone who suggests that Biden should deviate from his current approach, as the Democrats believe he has done great and the public is just ungrateful or confused.

In response to these troubling poll numbers, Biden has resorted to attacking the polls themselves, dismissing them as inaccurate and claiming that "the momentum is clearly in our favor." However, experts argue that while polls can have their limitations, they still provide the most reliable information about the state of public opinion, and dismissing them entirely is a dangerous political malpractice.

The View:

The lesson of the Trump years is that if you are consistently beating Trump in the polls, you want to be temperamentally cautious, focus on your campaign fundamentals and get-out-the-vote efforts, and project normalcy at every opportunity. However, Biden's refusal to acknowledge the seriousness of his polling problem and his unwillingness to make the necessary adjustments to his campaign strategy is both baffling and concerning. Rather than clinging to the false hope that the economy and Trump's legal troubles will magically turn the tide, Biden should confront the reality of his precarious position.

If you are losing to Trump, you cannot rely on events or Trump fatigue magically coming to your rescue and instead need to formulate a strategy that's commensurate with the challenge and be willing to break the normal rules of politics. It is clear that the traditional approach of running a campaign focused on policy accomplishments and normalcy is not resonating with the electorate in the current political climate. Voters are craving radical change, and Trump's promise to "tear down the system" is clearly appealing to a significant portion of the electorate, including some of Biden's core supporters.

The Biden campaign is being run as though its candidate were in the first position, as though it were protecting a lead that Biden doesn't have. Biden's stubborn insistence on maintaining the status quo and allowing his administration's policies to continue on a "progressive autopilot" is a recipe for disaster. Doubling down on initiatives like the aggressive push for electric vehicles and the imposition of trans-affirming policies in schools may play well with the party's base, but they are unlikely to win over the crucial swing voters Biden needs to secure victory.

Instead, Biden should be willing to make the patriotic and selfless decision to step aside and allow his party to reset the terms of the election. Alternatively, he could consider a major ticket shake-up, replacing the politically toxic Kamala Harris with a more popular and reassuring vice-presidential candidate. Such bold moves would demonstrate a clear recognition of the challenges facing the campaign and a willingness to adapt to the realities of the political landscape. Ultimately, Biden's refusal to confront the gravity of his polling problem and his unwavering commitment to his current approach is a recipe for defeat. The stakes are simply too high for the Democratic party to continue down this path, and Biden must be willing to make the difficult decisions necessary to give his party a fighting chance in this crucial election.

TLDR:

President Biden's polling numbers are a major concern for the Democratic party, with him trailing presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump by an average of around 1 percentage point nationally.
Biden's approval rating hovers around 38 percent, one of the lowest for a sitting president in decades, and his disapproval rating has continued to rise.
Biden's core constituencies, including young people, Black people, and Hispanics, are becoming increasingly "Trump-curious," with 30 percent of Black men in swing states saying they would definitely or probably vote for Trump.
The Democratic response to the polling situation is a blend of unwarranted confidence and unwarranted fatalism, with beliefs that Trump's lead is unsustainable and that polls don't matter until after the conventions.
Biden has resorted to attacking the polls themselves, dismissing them as inaccurate and claiming that "the momentum is clearly in our favor," which experts argue is a dangerous political malpractice.
The article suggests that Biden should be willing to make bold moves, such as stepping aside or considering a major ticket shake-up, to adapt to the realities of the political landscape and give the Democratic party a fighting chance in the upcoming election.