Countdown to Catastrophe: Israel and Hezbollah on the Brink of War

As the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalates, the threat of a devastating all-out war looms large, with both sides preparing for a potential clash.

Jun 22, 2024

The Facts:

The ongoing conflict between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah is rapidly escalating, raising fears of a much wider and deadlier confrontation. Over the past eight months, the fighting has simmered on Israel's northern border with Lebanon, with Hezbollah launching thousands of rockets, anti-tank missiles, and drones into Israel, while the Israeli Air Force has responded with thousands of airstrikes. As Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened, the group is ready for a battle "with no limitations, no rules, and no ceilings" if Israel expands the scope of the current conflict. Nasrallah also threatened to attack EU member state Cyprus if its military facilities are opened to Israel.

Hezbollah is a far more formidable foe for Israel than Hamas, the Palestinian militant group it has been fighting in Gaza. Hezbollah is estimated to have around 130,000 rockets and missiles, which could quickly overwhelm Israel's air defense systems and hit its major cities. Moreover, Hezbollah has gained significant battlefield experience fighting alongside Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria, which has been described as a "dress rehearsal" for the next war with Israel. Unlike Gaza, Iran has established ground and air supply routes to Lebanon through Iraq and Syria that could be used to sustain Hezbollah's forces in the event of an all-out war.

As former Israeli ambassador to the U.S. Michael Oren warned, "You're talking about knocking out all of our essential infrastructure, oil refineries, air bases, Dimona," referring to the site of Israel's nuclear research facility.

The situation has reached a critical juncture, with Hezbollah's most significant rocket assault yet against Israel last week in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike that killed a senior Hezbollah commander. This has fueled concerns that the conflict could rapidly spiral out of control, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken acknowledging that there is "momentum potentially in that direction."

An escalation of the conflict would be devastating for Lebanon, where Hezbollah has been described as operating a "state within a state." Over 140,000 people have been displaced from their homes on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border due to the ongoing fighting. There is political pressure on both sides to find a resolution that would allow displaced civilians to return to their homes, but stopping the rocket fire may not be enough to restore a sense of security.

The Biden administration's global energy envoy, Amos Hochstein, has become the point person in talks aimed at de-escalating tensions along the border, warning that a miscalculation or accident could slide the countries into war. The outlines of a potential agreement include a withdrawal of critical Hezbollah's capabilities up to six miles from the border, an enhanced presence by the Lebanese Armed Forces and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, and guarantees and strategic monitoring by the U.S. and France.

Meanwhile, Israel is ready for an "all-out war" and has approved plans for an offensive against Hezbollah. Like Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah is deeply embedded in Lebanon's civilian population, which would make any potential Israeli offensive devastating for the country. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has warned that Israel would "return Lebanon to the Stone Age" in the event of a war.

The current tension is further exacerbated by the fact that Hamas' October 7th attack on Israel were seen as a "page out of Hezbollah's playbook," indicating a growing coordination between the two Iran-backed groups. This has led to a shared assessment among Israeli and American officials that the situation on the northern border is no longer tenable.

The View:

The situation along the Israel-Lebanon border has become untenable, and Israel is clearly ready for an "all-out war" with Hezbollah. The Israeli government, regardless of its political leanings, cannot accept the status quo, which has effectively created a de facto buffer zone within Israeli territory. Hezbollah's boastful threats of a battle "with no limitations, no rules, and no ceilings" are deeply concerning and demonstrate the group's unwavering determination to continue extracting a price from Israel.

An escalation between Israel and Hezbollah would be devastating for Lebanon, where Hezbollah operates like a "state within a state." The Gaza conflict is just one front in a wider war with Iran, and an escalation with Hezbollah is seen as all but inevitable by some officials and analysts. Israel is likely to target civilian infrastructure in Lebanon, as it did during the 2006 war, if a conflict erupts.

However, Israeli officials' warnings that "Beirut will not be immune" from destruction are equally unhelpful and risk further escalating the conflict. Such a scenario would force Hezbollah to unleash its overwhelming firepower, including its ballistic missiles, on Israeli cities, potentially overwhelming the country's sophisticated air defense systems. The Biden administration must play a crucial role in averting a wider war or limiting its worst outcomes. U.S. mediation can provide diplomatic off-ramps, but the administration's inability to force a ceasefire in Gaza, coupled with Iran and Hezbollah's resolve to continue their confrontation with Israel, have so far precluded a diplomatic resolution.

As the Prussian military strategist Carl von Clausewitz famously stated, "War is the continuation of politics by other means." It appears that for Israel and Lebanon, the time for politics is ending, and the time for war is almost upon us. The impending confrontation could have devastating consequences for both sides, as well as the broader region, and it will require skillful diplomacy and decisive action to prevent a full-scale conflagration.

TLDR:

Ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is rapidly escalating, with Hezbollah launching thousands of rockets and drones into Israel and the Israeli Air Force responding with airstrikes.
Hezbollah is a more formidable foe for Israel than Hamas, with an estimated 130,000 rockets and missiles that could overwhelm Israel's air defense systems.
Hezbollah has gained significant battlefield experience fighting alongside Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria, which is seen as a "dress rehearsal" for the next war with Israel.
Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has threatened a battle "with no limitations, no rules, and no ceilings" if Israel expands the scope of the current conflict.
The situation has reached a critical juncture, with Hezbollah's most significant rocket assault yet against Israel in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike that killed a senior Hezbollah commander.
An escalation of the conflict would be devastating for Lebanon, where Hezbollah has been described as operating a "state within a state."
The Biden administration's global energy envoy, Amos Hochstein, is leading talks aimed at de-escalating tensions, but a diplomatic resolution remains elusive.
Israel is ready for an "all-out war" and has approved plans for an offensive against Hezbollah, which would be devastating for Lebanon's civilian population.
The growing coordination between Hezbollah and Hamas has led to a shared assessment among Israeli and American officials that the situation on the northern border is no longer tenable.