Confronting the China-Russia Axis: NATO's Stern Warning over Ukraine

China's strategic partnership with Russia comes under scrutiny as evidence mounts of its vital role in sustaining Russia's military capabilities in the Ukraine war.

Jul 12, 2024

Our experts read between the lines of NATO's Washington summit communiqué - Atlantic Council

The Facts:

The NATO alliance has issued its strongest condemnation yet of China's support for Russia's war in Ukraine. According to the joint declaration by NATO leaders, Beijing has become a "decisive enabler" of Russia's military campaign, providing critical materials and technology that sustain Moscow's war machine. The evidence suggests that Chinese semiconductors, machine tools, and other dual-use components have become vital to Russia's arms industries, allowing them to keep up the grinding war in Ukraine despite a web of Western sanctions. As Royal Netherlands Navy Adm. Rob Bauer, the chair of NATO's Military Committee, stated, "They're not giving weapons yet, but basically they give everything that makes a weapon. And therefore they are complicit as well."

According to an assessment from the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, "Sometimes, Chinese companies supplying Russia use chains of intermediary companies that can include more than a dozen firms." The assessment further states, "In other cases, descriptions of items in shipments are intentionally vague and the volume of goods exported is unreported."

China has refused to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but has shown some limits to its support, as it seeks to maintain access to American banks. The Chinese government has repeatedly rejected accusations against it, dismissing them as "ill-motivated" and having "no basis," as stated by Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian. However, the scale of China's trade with Russia has continued to grow since the invasion, with bilateral trade increasing by nearly $100 billion between 2021 and 2023. This has included a surge in the export of "dual-use" goods that can be used for both civilian and military purposes. Based on recent estimates by the Kyiv School of Economics Institute and the Yermak-McFaul International Working Group on Russian Sanctions, along with various intelligence agencies, China supplies around 70% of Russia's imports of machine tools and 90% of its microelectronics. This support enables Russia to sustain its defense industrial base and war effort.

In response, the United States and European Union have imposed sanctions on dozens of Chinese companies and individuals involved in this trade. However, the piecemeal nature of these exports and the use of complex supply chain networks have made it challenging to stem the flow of these critical materials to Russia. As one expert noted, "It's a cat and mouse game," and the sanctions can only be expected to limit, not eliminate, this trade. NATO's warning suggests that European Union countries may start sanctioning Chinese companies involved in technology trade with Russia.

Despite everything, China is unlikely to turn its back on Russia, as it sees Russia as an important strategic partner in countering the influence of the United States and its allies. As Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom suggested, "I think that secondary sanctions is something which we have to think about already." Additionally, 89% of Russia's import of goods on the G-7's high-priority export control list came from China in 2023. Imposing secondary sanctions on Chinese financial institutions and entities that facilitate trade with Russia could be an effective way to cut off Chinese supply chains to Russia's defense industry. However, dealing a fatal blow to Chinese exports of critical materials to Russia's defense industry may be an impossible task, as Chinese companies are hard targets for sanctions.

The View:

NATO's forceful language and accusations against China represent a significant escalation in the West's confrontation with Beijing over its support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. By directly calling out China as a "decisive enabler" of the war, the alliance is sending a clear and urgent message that this level of support cannot be tolerated without consequences. The evidence of China's complicity is overwhelming and damning. Beijing's claims of neutrality ring hollow when its companies are actively sustaining Russia's military capabilities, providing the very components and technologies that are being used to attack Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure. This is a clear violation of the international norms and principles that China claims to uphold.

China is unlikely to easily bow to NATO's demands and may see its partnership with Russia as an important strategic player against Western powers. The NATO statement reflects a growing consensus between the United States and Europe on the gravity of the threat posed by China's actions. The days of Beijing attempting to drive a wedge between the transatlantic allies appear to be over, as the West presents a united front in demanding that China cease its support for the Russian war effort.

Moreover, European Union countries may start sanctioning Chinese companies slowly, while carefully weighing the consequences and potential backlash. Ultimately, China finds itself at a crossroads. It can either heed the warnings of NATO and take concrete steps to restrict the flow of critical materials to Russia, or it can continue to enable Putin's aggression and face the consequences of its choices

If Beijing refuses to change course, it risks further isolation and the imposition of even more punishing sanctions that could inflict serious damage on its economy. The choice is China's, but the world is watching, and the world will hold it accountable.

TLDR:

NATO has issued its strongest condemnation of China's support for Russia's war in Ukraine, labeling Beijing a "decisive enabler" of Moscow's military campaign.
Evidence suggests that Chinese semiconductors, machine tools, and other dual-use components have become crucial to Russia's arms industries, allowing them to sustain the war in Ukraine despite Western sanctions.
China has refused to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine and has continued to expand its trade with Russia, including a surge in the export of "dual-use" goods.
The United States and European Union have imposed sanctions on dozens of Chinese companies and individuals involved in this trade, but the complex supply chain networks have made it challenging to stem the flow of critical materials to Russia.
NATO's warning suggests that European Union countries may start sanctioning Chinese companies involved in technology trade with Russia, and the possibility of imposing secondary sanctions on Chinese financial institutions and entities that facilitate trade with Russia is being considered.
China is unlikely to easily bow to NATO's demands, as it sees its partnership with Russia as an important strategic move against Western powers, but the choice of whether to continue enabling Putin's aggression or heed the warnings of the international community lies with Beijing.