BJP at a Crossroads: The Race to Succeed Modi
As Modi's reign nears its end, the BJP faces a critical juncture in determining his successor, with power struggles and competing interests shaping the future of India's political landscape.
The Story:
Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi is Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) greatest asset. Around a third of those who voted for the BJP in 2019 claimed that they did so primarily because of him.
A leadership struggle, however, is brewing within India's ruling party as the question of who will replace Modi as the party's leader looms. While the BJP has an unofficial retirement age of 75 for its senior leaders, the party has made it clear that this rule will not apply to Modi, who could potentially serve another full five-year term if the BJP wins the 2029 elections.
Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, who leads an opposition party, recently claimed that if the BJP wins the upcoming election, Modi would step down next year when he reaches the party's unofficial retirement age of 75. Kejriwal suggested that Home Minister Amit Shah would then replace Modi as the new leader. However, the BJP has dismissed this claim, stating that there is no such retirement rule in their constitution and that Modi will serve another full term.
Nonetheless, the party is aware that it needs to start preparing potential successors for when Modi eventually retires or steps down. The frontrunners for the position include Home Minister Amit Shah, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, and Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari.
Amit Shah's close ties to Modi and his influential position within the party make him the frontrunner, but his lack of charisma and his reputation for being more feared than loved could undermine his chances.
Yogi Adityanath, on the other hand, has emerged as a popular figure among the party's Hindu nationalist base, but his divisive rhetoric and controversial policies could limit his appeal beyond the party's core supporters.
Nitin Gadkari, with his more moderate and pragmatic approach, may be the most attractive option for the BJP, but his relative reticence on religious issues could be a liability within the party.
“No country should run on the basis of one person”
- Narendra Modi
Complicating the succession are the interests of two powerful stakeholders - the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the Hindu nationalist organization that birthed the BJP, and India's business elite, who have been important financial backers of the party. Each group has its own preferences for Modi's successor, creating additional tensions within the party.
The outcome of the upcoming 2024 elections will also play a crucial role in determining the timing and the dynamics of the succession process. A strong BJP victory could give Modi more leeway to delay his retirement, perpetuating his personalization of power. A disappointing result, however, could prompt calls for an earlier succession, intensifying the struggle among the leading contenders.
The View:
It is clear that the BJP is facing a critical juncture in its history as the party grapples with the question of who will succeed the towering figure of Narendra Modi.
The party's unwavering loyalty to Modi is understandable, given his unparalleled popularity and his role in transforming the BJP into the dominant political force in India.
However, the party's reliance on a single individual as its primary asset also makes it vulnerable, as surveys suggest that the BJP's support could drop significantly without Modi at the helm. The party's decision to disregard its own informal retirement age for senior leaders in order to keep Modi in power speaks volumes about the party's desperation to maintain its grip on power.
This move not only undermines the party's claims of being a meritocratic organization, but also raises questions about the BJP's commitment to democratic principles and the peaceful transfer of power.
The three contenders for Modi's mantle – Shah, Adityanath, and Gadkari – each bring their own unique strengths and challenges to the table.
Shah lacks charisma and his perception of being more feared than loved could hinder his chances. Yogi’s Hindutva credentials and popularity among the party's core base are undeniable, but his divisive rhetoric and policies may limit his broader appeal. Gadkari, on the other hand, enjoys strong support from the business community and the RSS, but his relative moderation on religious issues could be a liability within the BJP.
Ultimately, the BJP's choice of successor will have profound implications not only for the party itself, but for the future of Indian democracy. The party must carefully navigate the competing interests of its various stakeholders, including the RSS, big businesses, and its own internal factions, while ensuring that the transition of power is smooth, transparent, and in line with democratic principles.
The BJP's handling of this critical juncture will be a true test of the party's commitment to the ideals of good governance, inclusive development, and the protection of India's secular and pluralistic ethos. The stakes are high, not just for the BJP, but for the future of India's democratic institutions and its standing on the global stage.
As an observer, the internal conflicts and power struggles in the BJP's succession process seem somewhat worrying. As this could further polarize the country and weaken its democratic norms.
TLDR:
Narendra Modi is the BJP's greatest asset, with around a third of 2019 voters supporting the party primarily because of him.
The BJP has an unofficial retirement age of 75 for senior leaders, but this rule will not apply to Modi, who could potentially serve another full term if the BJP wins the 2029 elections.
The party is aware that it needs to start preparing potential successors for when Modi eventually retires or steps down, with Shah, Adityanath, and Gadkari as the frontrunners.
The succession process is complicated by the interests of the RSS and India's business elite, who have their own preferences for Modi's successor.
The outcome of the upcoming 2024 elections will play a crucial role in determining the timing and dynamics of the succession process.
The BJP's handling of this critical juncture will be a true test of the party's commitment to the ideals of good governance, inclusive development, and the protection of India's secular and pluralistic ethos.
Insights From:
Who could replace Narendra Modi? - The Economist
Who is best suited to succeed Narendra Modi as PM? - India Today